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Technology Spillovers and Land Use Change: Empirical Evidence from Global Agriculture

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  • Villoria, Nelson B.

Abstract

Cross-country empirical evidence on the effects of agricultural technological change on cropland use is surprisingly scarce. Such a lack of evidence has given way to polarized views on the potential of technological progress to slow down deforestation. To fill this gap, this paper develops and estimates a model that links the changes in a country's cropland to changes in both domestic and foreign total factor productivity (TFP). We find that in most countries of the world TFP growth is either uncorrelated or positively associated with cropland expansion. Yet worldwide patterns of TFP growth have been an important source of global land savings. The divergence between country-level and global results is explained by the changes in production patterns as countries interact in international markets. A simple, back of the envelope calculation suggests that in the absence of TFP growth, global land expansion during 1991-2010 would have been twice as large as observed.

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  • Villoria, Nelson B., 2017. "Technology Spillovers and Land Use Change: Empirical Evidence from Global Agriculture," Conference papers 332895, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332895
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    1. Klaus Deininger & Derek Byerlee & Jonathan Lindsay & Andrew Norton & Harris Selod & Mercedes Stickler, 2011. "Rising Global Interest in Farmland : Can it Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2263.
    2. Cem Ertur & Antonio Musolesi, 2017. "Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 477-503, April.
    3. Nelson B. Villoria & Derek Byerlee & James Stevenson, 2014. "The Effects of Agricultural Technological Progress on Deforestation: What Do We Really Know?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 211-237.
    4. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
    6. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Palmer, Charles & di Falco, Salvatore, 2013. "Dynamics of indirect land-use change: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 377-393.
    7. Hayami, Yujiro & Ruttan, V W, 1970. "Factor Prices and Technical Change in Agricultural Development: The United States and Japan, 1880-1960," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1115-1141, Sept.-Oct.
    8. Nelson B. Villoria & Alla Golub & Derek Byerlee & James Stevenson, 2013. "Will Yield Improvements on the Forest Frontier Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions? A Global Analysis of Oil Palm," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1301-1308.
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    2. Kubitza, Christoph & Dib, Jonida Bou & Kopp, Thomas & Krishna, Vijesh V. & Nuryartono, Nunung & Qaim, Matin & Romero, Miriam & Klasen, Stephan, 2019. "Labor savings in agriculture and inequality at different spatial scales: The expansion of oil palm in Indonesia," EFForTS Discussion Paper Series 26, University of Goettingen, Collaborative Research Centre 990 "EFForTS, Ecological and Socioeconomic Functions of Tropical Lowland Rainforest Transformation Systems (Sumatra, Indonesia)".
    3. Kubitza, Christoph & Vijesh, Krishna V. & Klasen, Stephan & Kopp, Thomas & Nuryartono, Nunung & Qaim, Matin, 2021. "Labor Displacement in Agriculture: The Case of Oil Palm in Indonesia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314982, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Paul Brenton & Vicky Chemutai & Mari Pangestu, 2022. "Trade and food security in a climate change‐impacted world," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 580-591, July.
    5. Wen, Lanjiao & Chatalova, Lioudmila, 2021. "Will transaction costs and economies of scale tip the balance in farm size in industrial agriculture? An illustration for non-food biomass production in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13(2).
    6. Edoardo Baldoni & Roberto Esposti, 2021. "Agricultural Productivity in Space: an Econometric Assessment Based on Farm‐Level Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1525-1544, August.
    7. Matin Qaim, 2020. "Role of New Plant Breeding Technologies for Food Security and Sustainable Agricultural Development," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 129-150, June.
    8. Lanjiao Wen & Lioudmila Chatalova, 2021. "Will Transaction Costs and Economies of Scale Tip the Balance in Farm Size in Industrial Agriculture? An Illustration for Non-Food Biomass Production in Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.
    9. Bernhard Dalheimer & Christoph Kubitza & Bernhard Brümmer, 2022. "Technical efficiency and farmland expansion: Evidence from oil palm smallholders in Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(4), pages 1364-1387, August.
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    11. Muhammad Usman & Gulnaz Hameed & Abdul Saboor & Lal K. Almas & Muhammad Hanif, 2021. "R&D Innovation Adoption, Climatic Sensitivity, and Absorptive Ability Contribution for Agriculture TFP Growth in Pakistan," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, November.
    12. Lingran Yuan & Shurui Zhang & Shuo Wang & Zesen Qian & Binlei Gong, 2021. "World agricultural convergence," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 135-153, April.
    13. Keith Fuglie & Srabashi Ray & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2022. "The R&D cost of climate mitigation in agriculture," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1955-1974, December.

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