IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae18/277190.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fundamental Drivers of Food Inflation - Evidence from South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Louw, M.
  • Meyer, F.
  • Kirsten, J.

Abstract

Food inflation and its associated drivers is an important issue to consider in a food security and macroeconomic context. Despite this, scientific research on this is sparse. This study gauges the impact of key fundamental variables on food inflation in terms of magnitude and duration. It employs time series econometric techniques and finds that the exchange rate, world food/commodity prices and local agricultural prices are the main drivers of food inflation in South Africa. In terms of the short-run dynamics, the results suggest that agricultural prices and the exchange rate take up to two months to manifest in food inflation, whereas world commodity prices only affect local food inflation after eight months. The effect of a recent drought and exchange rate depreciation on food inflation is also explored, in terms of scale and persistence. Simulations suggest that the length and effect of the recent drought, as manifested in agricultural prices, will result in double-digit food inflation lasting in excess of 12 months after the commencement of the shock. Simulation results also show that perseverance in exchange rate shocks seems to affect the scale of the final effect on food inflation more than the perseverance. Acknowledgement :

Suggested Citation

  • Louw, M. & Meyer, F. & Kirsten, J., 2018. "Fundamental Drivers of Food Inflation - Evidence from South Africa," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277190, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:277190
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.277190
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/277190/files/1274.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.277190?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianluigi Ferrucci & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Luca Onorantea, 2012. "Food Price Pass-Through in the Euro Area: Non-Linearities and the Role of the Common Agricultural Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 179-218, March.
    2. James Davidson & Andreea Halunga & Tim Lloyd & Steve McCorriston & Wyn Morgan, 2016. "World Commodity Prices and Domestic Retail Food Price Inflation: Some Insights from the UK," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 566-583, September.
    3. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    4. Louw, Marlene & Meyer, Ferdi & Kirsten, Johann, 2017. "Vertical price transmission and its inflationary implications in South African food chains," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 56(2), March.
    5. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    6. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Birru, Yohannes A., 2009. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in an agricultural economy : the case of Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4969, The World Bank.
    7. Uchezuba, I.D. & Jooste, Andre & Willemse, Johan, 2010. "Measuring Asymmetric Price and Volatility Spillover in the South African Broiler Market," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 96434, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    8. Michela Cutts & Johann Kirsten, 2006. "Asymmetric Price Transmission And Market Concentration: An Investigation Into Four South African Agro‐Food Industries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(2), pages 323-333, June.
    9. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    10. Logan Rangasamy, 2011. "Food Inflation In South Africa: Some Implications For Economic Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(2), pages 184-201, June.
    11. Philip Abbott & Adeline Borot de Battisti, 2011. "Recent Global Food Price Shocks: Causes, Consequences and Lessons for African Governments and Donors-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 20(suppl_1), pages -62, May.
    12. Altman, M. & Hart, Tim G.B. & Jacobs, Peter T., 2009. "Household food security status in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 48(4), pages 1-17, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    2. Lucotte, Yannick, 2016. "Co-movements between crude oil and food prices: A post-commodity boom perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 142-147.
    3. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Bloch, Harry, 2016. "Explaining commodity prices through asymmetric oil shocks: Evidence from nonlinear models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 34-48.
    4. Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Faruk Urak & Abdulbaki Bilgic & Gürkan Bozma & Wojciech J. Florkowski & Erkan Efekan, 2022. "Volatility in Live Calf, Live Sheep, and Feed Wheat Return Markets: A Threat to Food Price Stability in Turkey," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, April.
    6. Aye, Goodness C., 2016. "Causality between Oil Price and South Africa's Food Price: Time Varying Approach - Relazione di causalità tra prezzo del petrolio e pr ezzo dei prodotti alimentari in Sud Africa: un approccio time var," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(3), pages 193-212.
    7. Muhammed A. Usman & Mekbib G. Haile, 2017. "Producer to retailer price transmission in cereal markets of Ethiopia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 815-829, August.
    8. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.
    9. Karakotsios, Achillefs & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Kroupis, Nikolaos, 2021. "The dynamic linkages between food prices and oil prices. Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    10. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    12. Ahmadi, Maryam & Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "How is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-23.
    13. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander, 2021. "The threat of oil market turmoils to food price stability in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    14. Ren, Yinghua & Tan, Anqi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhao, Wanru, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive nonlinear risk spillover in the commodity futures market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Roberto Pasqualino & Irene Monasterolo & Aled Jones, 2019. "An Integrated Global Food and Energy Security System Dynamics Model for Addressing Systemic Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-20, July.
    16. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    17. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    18. Tefera, Nigussie, 2012. "Welfare Impacts of Rising Food Prices in Rural Ethiopia: a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System Approach," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126698, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2017. "Commodity Storage and the Market Effects of Biofuel Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1027-1055.
    20. Miroslava Ivanova & Lilko Dospatliev, 2023. "Effects of Diesel Price on Changes in Agricultural Commodity Prices in Bulgaria," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Security and Poverty;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:277190. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.