IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v12y2022i4p566-d795357.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatility in Live Calf, Live Sheep, and Feed Wheat Return Markets: A Threat to Food Price Stability in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Faruk Urak

    (The Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT), Erzurum Directorate, Erzurum 25100, Turkey)

  • Abdulbaki Bilgic

    (Department of Management Information Systems, College of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bilecik Şeyh Edebali University, Bilecik 11320, Turkey)

  • Gürkan Bozma

    (Department of Economics, College of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Iğdır University, Iğdır 76420, Turkey)

  • Wojciech J. Florkowski

    (Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, 1109 Experiment Street, Griffin, GA 30223-1797, USA)

  • Erkan Efekan

    (Agriculture and Rural Development Support Institution (ARDSI), Erzurum Provincial Coordinatorship, Şükrüpaşa Neighborhood, T.M.O. Lodgings Street No:1, Yakutiye, Erzurum 25100, Turkey)

Abstract

The volatility of meat prices affects the accessibility and even food security of some consumers in Turkey. This study analyses the prices of selected livestock and a major feed component, wheat, as well as the exchange rate of the domestic currency in Turkey because imports augmented the domestic live calf and sheep supply. The analysis applies 470 price observations from January 2005 to October 2019 for each of the following price series: live calf, live sheep, feed wheat, and exchange rate of Turkish lira to US dollar. The series are analyzed by using the VAR-Asymmetric BEKK-GARCH technique. The results show that the elicited conditional variances of the return series were significantly affected by both short-term shocks and shocks across the return series. The uncertainties in the live calf, live sheep, and feed wheat markets were affected by both long-term volatilities and long-term swings in their own and the other markets, but their own market-induced effects were stronger. Similarly, the conditional variances of the returns of live calves, live sheep, and feed wheat were significantly affected by the rapid price ascent in the exchange rate and the periods of livestock imports as compared to the periods when imports were absent. The unfavorable news exerted particularly negative effects on persistent volatility in markets. Additionally, the live sheep market faced greater risks than the live calf or wheat markets and was greatly affected by the limited domestic sheep supply. Results provide knowledge useful in augmenting policy, assuring sustained accessibility to animal protein in Turkey and eliminating food insecurity.

Suggested Citation

  • Faruk Urak & Abdulbaki Bilgic & Gürkan Bozma & Wojciech J. Florkowski & Erkan Efekan, 2022. "Volatility in Live Calf, Live Sheep, and Feed Wheat Return Markets: A Threat to Food Price Stability in Turkey," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:4:p:566-:d:795357
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/4/566/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/4/566/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ceballos, Francisco & Hernandez, Manuel A. & Minot, Nicholas & Robles, Miguel, 2017. "Grain Price and Volatility Transmission from International to Domestic Markets in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 305-320.
    2. Lawrence, John D. & Mintert, James R. & Anderson, John D. & Anderson, David P., 2008. "Feed Grains and Livestock: Impacts on Meat Supplies and Prices," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-5.
    3. WanChun Luo & Rui Liu, 2011. "Analysis of meat price volatility in China," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 402-411, September.
    4. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 141-155, March.
    5. Afees A. Salisu & Taofeek O. Ayinde, 2018. "Testing for spillovers in naira exchange rates: The role of electioneering & global financial crisis," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 18(4), pages 341-348, December.
    6. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 280-310, April.
    7. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    8. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugando, Mikel, 2014. "US dollar exchange rate and food price dependence: Implications for portfolio risk management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 72-89.
    9. Buguk, Cumhur & Hudson, Darren & Hanson, Terrill R., 2003. "Price Volatility Spillover in Agricultural Markets: An Examination of U.S. Catfish Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-14, April.
    10. Elena I. Ianchovichina & Josef L. Loening & Christina A. Wood, 2014. "How Vulnerable are Arab Countries to Global Food Price Shocks?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 1302-1319, September.
    11. Ziemer, Rod F. & Collins, Glenn S., 1984. "Granger Causality And U.S. Crop And Livestock Prices," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 1-6, July.
    12. Gökhan ÖZERTAN & Sayed H. SAGHAİAN & Hasan TEKGÜÇ, 2015. "Dynamics of Price Transmission and Market Power in the Turkish Beef Sector," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 30(349), pages 53-76.
    13. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
    14. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    15. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
    16. Kesavan, T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V. & Johnson, Stanley R., 1992. "Dynamics and Price Volatility in Farm-Retail Livestock Price Relationships," Staff General Research Papers Archive 549, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Kesavan, T. & Aradhyula, Satheesh V. & Johnson, Stanley R., 1992. "Dynamics And Price Volatility In Farm-Retail Livestock Price Relationships," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Apostolos Serletis, 2012. "Oil Price Uncertainty," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8407, February.
    19. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Stavropoulos, Konstantinos S., 2009. "Modeling Pork Supply Response and Price Volatility: The Case of Greece," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-18, April.
    20. Nicholas Apergis & Anthony Rezitis, 2003. "Agricultural price volatility spillover effects: the case of Greece," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 30(3), pages 389-406, September.
    21. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2012. "Oil price uncertainty and the Canadian economy: Evidence from a VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, asymmetric BEKK model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 603-610.
    22. Meltem Gulenay Chadwick & Emine Meltem Bastan, 2017. "Beef Price Volatility in Turkey: Can Import Policy Affect the Price and Its Uncertainty?," Working Papers 1709, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    23. Philip Abbott & Adeline Borot de Battisti, 2011. "Recent Global Food Price Shocks: Causes, Consequences and Lessons for African Governments and Donors-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 20(suppl_1), pages -62, May.
    24. Rask, Kolleen J. & Rask, Norman, 2011. "Economic development and food production-consumption balance: A growing global challenge," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 186-196, April.
    25. Burakov, D., 2016. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Prices for Agricultural Commodities: Empirical Evidence from Russia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, June.
    26. Ziemer, Rod F. & Collins, Glenn S., 1984. "Granger Causality and U.S. Crop and Livestock Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 115-120, July.
    27. D. Miljkovic & R. Zhuang, 2011. "The exchange rate pass-through into import prices: the case of Japanese meat imports," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3745-3754.
    28. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 796-806.
    29. Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1155-1164.
    30. Udo Broll & Peter Welzel & Kit Pong Wong, 2013. "Price Risk and Risk Management in Agriculture," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(2), June.
    31. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    32. Tejeda, Hernan A. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2011. "Dynamic Price Relationships in the Grain and Cattle Markets, Pre and Post-Ethanol Mandate," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103825, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    33. Fadi Abdelradi & Teresa Serra, 2015. "Asymmetric price volatility transmission between food and energy markets: The case of Spain," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 46(4), pages 503-513, July.
    34. Miao Zhen & James Rude & Feng Qiu, 2018. "Price Volatility Spillovers in the Western Canadian Feed Barley, U.S. Corn, and Alberta Cattle Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 66(2), pages 209-229, June.
    35. Harri, Ardian & Nalley, Lanier & Hudson, Darren, 2009. "The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 501-510, August.
    36. López Cabrera, Brenda & Schulz, Franziska, 2016. "Volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 190-203.
    37. Kolleen Rask & Norman Rask, 2011. "Economic development and food production–consumption balance: A growing global challenge," Working Papers 1117, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    38. Anthony N. Rezitis & Konstantinos S. Stavropoulos, 2012. "Greek meat supply response and price volatility in a rational expectations framework: a multivariate GARCH approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 39(2), pages 309-333, April.
    39. Lucotte, Yannick, 2016. "Co-movements between crude oil and food prices: A post-commodity boom perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 142-147.
    40. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2016. "Co-movements between crude oil and food prices: A post-commodity boom perspective," Post-Print hal-03528419, HAL.
    41. Yusuf Emre Akgunduz & Seyit Mumin Cilasun & Elif Ozcan Tok, 2020. "Dana Eti ve Sut Sektorlerinde Tedarik Zinciri ve Karlilik Analizi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2007, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    42. Headey, Derek & Fan, Shenggen, 2010. "Reflections on the global food crisis: How did it happen? How has it hurt? And how can we prevent the next one?," Research reports 165, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    43. Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Correlations and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 248-255.
    44. Bartoli, A. & Cavicchioli, D. & Kremmydas, D. & Rozakis, S. & Olper, A., 2016. "The impact of different energy policy options on feedstock price and land demand for maize silage: The case of biogas in Lombardy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 351-363.
    45. Tsion Taye Assefa & Miranda P.M. Meuwissen & Alfons G.J.M. Oude Lansink, 2015. "Price Volatility Transmission in Food Supply Chains: A Literature Review," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 3-13, January.
    46. Radmehr, Riza & Henneberry, Shida Rastegari, 2019. "The Impact of Prices of Oil, Currency, and Capital on Food Prices: An Empirical Evidence from the Panel VAR Analysis," 2019 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2019, Birmingham, Alabama 284324, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    47. Tejeda, Hernan A. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2009. "Price Volatility, Nonlinearity, and Asymmetric Adjustments in Corn, Soybean, and Cattle Markets: Implications of Ethanol-Driven (Market) Shocks," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53039, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    48. Morrison, J. A. & Balcombe, K. & Bailey, A. & Klonaris, S. & Rapsomanikis, G., 2003. "Expenditure on different categories of meat in Greece: the influence of changing tastes," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 139-150, March.
    49. Chen, Sheng-Tung & Kuo, Hsiao-I & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2010. "Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2517-2525, August.
    50. Charles C. Martinez & Joshua G. Maples & Justin Benavidez, 2021. "Beef Cattle Markets and COVID‐19," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 304-314, March.
    51. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    52. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2011. "World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2935-2943, May.
    53. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1996. "Stock market volatility and the crash of 1987: evidence from six emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 969-981, December.
    54. Pozo, Veronica F. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2012. "Price and Volatility Spillover between Livestock and Related Commodity Markets," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    55. Loening, Josef L., 2011. "Middle East and North Africa Countries' Vulnerability to Commodity Price Increases," MPRA Paper 33393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ags:aaea22:335748 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    2. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Do, Hung Xuan & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf, 2016. "Fossil fuel price uncertainty and feedstock edible oil prices: Evidence from MGARCH-M and VIRF analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 16-27.
    3. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    4. Miao Zhen & James Rude & Feng Qiu, 2018. "Price Volatility Spillovers in the Western Canadian Feed Barley, U.S. Corn, and Alberta Cattle Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 66(2), pages 209-229, June.
    5. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    6. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Dahl, Roy Endré & Oglend, Atle & Yahya, Muhammad, 2020. "Dynamics of volatility spillover in commodity markets: Linking crude oil to agriculture," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    8. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2017. "Time-frequency contained co-movement of crude oil and world food prices: A wavelet-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 230-239.
    9. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Maitra, Debasish & Guhathakurta, Kousik & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "The good, the bad and the ugly relation between oil and commodities: An analysis of asymmetric volatility connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Shokoohi, Zeinab & Saghaian, Sayed, 2022. "Nexus of energy and food nutrition prices in oil importing and exporting countries: A panel VAR model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    12. Agus Widarjono & Indah Susantun & Sarastri M. Ruchba & Ari Rudatin, 2020. "Oil and Food Prices for a Net Oil Importing-country: How Are Related in Indonesia?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 255-263.
    13. Ebenezer, Appiah Collins & Jatoe, John Baptist D. & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi, 2018. "Food Price Sensitivity To Changes In Petroleum Price And Exchange Rate In Ghana: A Cointegration Analysis," 2018 Conference (2nd), August 8-11, Kumasi, Ghana 277791, Ghana Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Vo, Long Hai & Le, Thai-Ha, 2021. "Eatery, energy, environment and economic system, 1970–2017: Understanding volatility spillover patterns in a global sample," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Eissa, Mohamad Abdelaziz & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Modelling the symmetric and asymmetric relationships between oil prices and those of corn, barley, and rapeseed oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Anupam Dutta & Md Hasib Noor, 2017. "Oil and non-energy commodity markets: An empirical analysis of volatility spillovers and hedging effectiveness," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1324555-132, January.
    17. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Copula-based local dependence among energy, agriculture and metal commodities markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The relationship between fuel and food prices: Methods, outcomes, and lessons for commodity price risk management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Filip, Ondrej & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Food versus fuel: An updated and expanded evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    20. Ahmed Ghorbel & Wajdi Hamma & Anis Jarboui, 2017. "Dependence between oil and commodities markets using time-varying Archimedean copulas and effectiveness of hedging strategies," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(9), pages 1509-1542, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:4:p:566-:d:795357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.