IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jae/japmet/v20y2005i3p405-422.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in commodity futures

Author

Listed:
  • Aaron Smith

    (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, USA)

Abstract

In commodity futures markets, contracts with various delivery dates trade simultaneously. Applied researchers typically discard the majority of the data and form a single time series by choosing only one price observation per day. This strategy precludes a full understanding of these markets and can induce complicated nonlinear dynamics in the data. In this paper, I introduce the partially overlapping time series (POTS) model to model jointly all traded contracts. The POTS model incorporates time-to-delivery, storability, seasonality and GARCH effects. I apply the POTS model to corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade and the results uncover substantial inefficiency associated with delivery on corn futures. The results also support two theories of commodity pricing: the theory of storage and the Samuelson effect. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Smith, 2005. "Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 405-422.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:3:p:405-422
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.846
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.846
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2005-v20.3/
    File Function: Supporting data files and programs
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jae.846?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
    3. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-124, April-Jun.
    4. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    5. Holbrook Working, 1948. "Theory of the Inverse Carrying Charge in Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-28.
    6. Deborah H. Streeter & William G. Tomek, 1992. "Variability in soybean futures prices: An integrated framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 705-728, December.
    7. Enrique Sentana, 1998. "The relation between conditionally heteroskedastic factor models and factor GARCH models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(RegularPa), pages 1-9.
    8. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 233-233.
    9. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, June.
    10. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
    11. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-230, April.
    12. Williams, Jeffrey, 1987. "Futures Markets: A Consequences of Risk Aversion or Transactions Costs?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1000-1023, October.
    13. Roger W. Gray, 1961. "The Search for a Risk Premium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 250-250.
    14. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1075-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Williams, Jeffrey C., 2001. "Commodity futures and options," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 745-816, Elsevier.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julyerme M. Tonin & Carlos M. R. Vieira & Rui M. de Sousa Fragoso & João G. Martines Filho, 2020. "Conditional correlation and volatility between spot and futures markets for soybean and corn," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 707-724, October.
    2. Xiaoli L. Etienne & Mindy L. Mallory & Scott H. Irwin, 2017. "Estimating the cost of pre‐harvest forward contracting corn and soybeans in Illinois before and after 2007," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 358-377, June.
    3. Suenaga, Hiroaki, 2013. "Measuring bias in a term-structure model of commodity prices through the comparison of simultaneous and sequential estimation," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 53-66.
    4. Berna Karali & Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Walter N. Thurman, 2010. "Do volatility determinants vary across futures contracts? Insights from a smoothed Bayesian estimator," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 257-277, March.
    5. Gabriel E Lade & C -Y Cynthia Lin Lawell & Aaron Smith, 2018. "Policy Shocks and Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 707-731.
    6. Power, Gabriel J. & Robinson, John R.C., 2009. "Cotton Futures Dynamics: Structural Change, Index Traders and the Returns to Storage," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53044, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    7. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.
    8. Jing Ao & Jihui Chen, 2020. "Price Volatility, the Maturity Effect, and Global Oil Prices: Evidence from Chinese Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 627-654, October.
    9. Berna Karali & Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Walter N. Thurman, 2010. "Delivery horizon and grain market volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 846-873, September.
    10. Quanbiao Shang & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia & Mindy Mallory, 2021. "Looking under the surface: An analysis of iceberg orders in the U.S. agricultural futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(4), pages 679-699, July.
    11. Xiaoyang Wang & Philip Garcia & Scott H. Irwin, 2014. "The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically-Traded Corn Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(2), pages 557-577.
    12. Gabriel J. Power & John R. C. Robinson, 2013. "Commodity futures price volatility, convenience yield and economic fundamentals," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1089-1095, July.
    13. Li, Jianping & Li, Guowen & Liu, Mingxi & Zhu, Xiaoqian & Wei, Lu, 2022. "A novel text-based framework for forecasting agricultural futures using massive online news headlines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 35-50.
    14. Berna Karali & Walter N. Thurman, 2009. "Announcement effects and the theory of storage: an empirical study of lumber futures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 421-436, July.
    15. Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2008. "On Term Structure Models of Commodity Futures Prices and the Kaldor-Working Hypothesis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37608, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    16. Hiroaki Suenaga, 2013. "A flexible model of term-structure dynamics of commodity prices: a comparative analysis with a two-factor Gaussian model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 509-526, March.
    17. Bozic, Marin & Fortenbery, T., 2015. "Price Discovery, Volatility Spillovers and Adequacy of Speculation when Spot Prices are Stationary: The Case of U.S. Dairy Markets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211369, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Zhepeng Hu & Mindy Mallory & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2020. "Measuring price discovery between nearby and deferred contracts in storable and nonstorable commodity futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 825-840, November.
    19. Quanbiao Shang & Mindy Mallory & Philip Garcia, 2018. "The components of the bid†ask spread: Evidence from the corn futures market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 381-393, May.
    20. Jin, Na, 2011. "Three essays on commodity futures and options markets," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001428, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aaron Smith, 2005. "Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 405-422, March.
    2. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    3. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    4. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19065 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 19065, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    7. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2022. "Exploring the transmission mechanism of speculative and inventory arbitrage activity to commodity price volatility. Novel evidence for the US economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 3966, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    9. Engle, Robert F. & Marcucci, Juri, 2006. "A long-run Pure Variance Common Features model for the common volatilities of the Dow Jones," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 7-42, May.
    10. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    11. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    12. CARPANTIER, Jean - François, 2010. "Commodities inventory effect," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2010040, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    13. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19042 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Y. K. Tse & Albert K. C. Tsui, 2000. "A Multivariate GARCH Model with Time-Varying correlations," Econometrics 0004010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
    16. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    17. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, September.
    18. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Likelihood-Based Estimation of Latent Generalized ARCH Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1481-1517, September.
    19. Catherine Doz & Eric Renault, 2004. "Conditionaly Heteroskedastic Factor Models : Identificationand Instrumental variables Estmation," THEMA Working Papers 2004-13, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    20. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mauro Bernardi & Leopoldo Catania, 2015. "Switching-GAS Copula Models With Application to Systemic Risk," Papers 1504.03733, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    22. de Almeida, Daniel & Hotta, Luiz K. & Ruiz, Esther, 2018. "MGARCH models: Trade-off between feasibility and flexibility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-63.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:3:p:405-422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.