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The impact of inflationary news on money market yields and volatilities

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  • Sanjay Ramchander
  • Marc Simpson
  • Mukesh Chaudhry

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of surprises in hourly wages, non-farm payroll, unemployment rate, and producer price index on the yields and volatilities of money market securities. The methodology is conducted in a framework that preserves the strong substitutability among the instruments. We find first the short-term interest rate nexus is inherently a steady state long-run phenomenon. Second, yield variability is fundamentally linked to the release of macroeconomic news that conveys important information on inflation. Third, results from the equality of variance tests suggest that volatilities on announcement days are significantly higher than non-announcement day volatilities across all securities. Copyright Academy of Economics and Finance 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjay Ramchander & Marc Simpson & Mukesh Chaudhry, 2003. "The impact of inflationary news on money market yields and volatilities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 85-101, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:27:y:2003:i:1:p:85-101
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02751592
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    2. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Thiewes, Harold, 2008. "The effect of macroeconomic news on German closed-end funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 708-724, November.
    3. Klein, Tony, 2022. "Agree to disagree? Predictions of U.S. nonfarm payroll changes between 2008 and 2020 and the impact of the COVID19 labor shock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 264-286.
    4. Moura, Marcelo L. & Gaião, Rafael L., 2014. "Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the Brazilian yield curve and expected inflation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 114-144.
    5. Klein, Tony, 2021. "Agree to Disagree? Predictions of U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Changes between 2008 and 2020 and the Impact of the COVID19 Labor Shock," QBS Working Paper Series 2021/07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.

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