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Measuring downside risk — realised semivariance

Author

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  • Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen
  • Silja Kinnebrock
  • Neil Shephard

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

Abstract

We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from probability theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Silja Kinnebrock & Neil Shephard, 2008. "Measuring downside risk — realised semivariance," CREATES Research Papers 2008-42, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2008-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market frictions; Quadratic variation; Realised variance; Semimartingale; Semivariance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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