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Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural

In: Crecimiento económico en el Perú: causas y consecuencias

Author

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  • José Luis Nolazco
  • Patricia Lengua-Lafosse
  • Nikita Céspedes Reynaga

Abstract

En este capítulo se estudia la contribución del sector externo en el crecimiento de la economía peruana en el periodo 1996-2015. Se usa un modelo semi-estructural similar a los desarrollos disponibles (Berg et al., 2006; Salas, 2011; Adler y Sosa, 2012; Han, 2014), de modo que los choques externos se propagan endógenamente en el crecimiento de una economía pequeña, abierta y parcialmente dolarizada mediante los canales reales (comercio y términos de intercambio) y financiero (volatilidad y tipo de cambio). Se encuentra que los efectos conjuntos de los todos los choques externos que enfrentó la economía peruana en los periodos 2005-2008 y 2010-2013 representan hasta el 36% y 28% del crecimiento observado, respectivamente. Asimismo, durante el 2009 se hubiera crecido 4.2 puntos porcentuales mayor al observado en dicho año (1.1%) si es que no hubiera ocurrido la crisis económica mundial.

Suggested Citation

  • José Luis Nolazco & Patricia Lengua-Lafosse & Nikita Céspedes Reynaga, 2020. "Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Capítulos de libros, in: Nikita Céspedes Reynaga & Norman V. Loayza & Nelson R. Ramírez Rondán (ed.), Crecimiento económico en el Perú: causas y consecuencias, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 74-117, Universidad de San Martín de Porres.
    • Handle: RePEc:alp:chusmp:20-01-03
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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
    2. Nolazco Cama, Jose Luis & Bravo-Ortega, Claudio, 2015. "Instituciones, Recursos Naturales Y Sus Efectos En El Crecimiento Economico: Un Sistema De Ecuaciones Simultáneas En Panel De Datos [Institutions, Natural Resources And Its Impact On Economic Growt," MPRA Paper 74421, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ganiko, Gustavo & Jiménez, Alvaro, 2023. "Choques externos en la economía peruana: un enfoque de ceros y signos en un modelo BVAR," Working Papers 2023-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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