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Un modelo semiestructural de proyección para la economía peruana

Author

Listed:
  • Vega, Marco
  • Bigio, Saki
  • Florian, David
  • Llosa, Gonzalo
  • Miller, Shirley
  • Ramirez-Rondan, Nelson
  • Rodriguez, Donita
  • Salas, Jorge
  • Winkelried, Diego

Abstract

El documento describe el Modelo de Proyección Trimestral (MPT) utilizado por el Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) para fines de simulación de política monetaria y de proyección de las principales variables macroeconómicas. La estructura básica del modelo es una aproximación a la representación lineal de un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para una economía pequeña y abierta con dolarización parcial. El modelo incorpora expectativas racionales y posee un fundamento neo-keynesiano (rigidez de precios) que permite un rol de la política monetaria sobre las variables reales en el corto plazo. Clasificación JEL: E37, E52, E58, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Vega, Marco & Bigio, Saki & Florian, David & Llosa, Gonzalo & Miller, Shirley & Ramirez-Rondan, Nelson & Rodriguez, Donita & Salas, Jorge & Winkelried, Diego, 2009. "Un modelo semiestructural de proyección para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 17, pages 51-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-17-02
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    File URL: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/17/Estudios-Economicos-17-2.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Midiendo los efectos de la política monetaria a través de las expectativas de mercado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 39-52.
    2. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Castillo, Paul & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2012. "Does the exchange rate pass-through into prices change when inflation targeting is adopted? The Peruvian case study between 1994 and 2007," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1154-1166.
    3. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2013. "Inflation expectations formation in the presence of policy shifts and structural breaks: An experimental analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 59-67.
    4. Pérez-Forero, Fernando & Vega, Marco, 2014. "The Dynamic Effects of Interest Rates and Reserve Requirements," Working Papers 2014-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    5. José Luis Nolazco & Patricia Lengua-Lafosse & Nikita Céspedes Reynaga, 2020. "Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Capítulos de libros, in: Nikita Céspedes Reynaga & Norman V. Loayza & Nelson R. Ramírez Rondán (ed.), Crecimiento económico en el Perú: causas y consecuencias, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 74-117, Universidad de San Martín de Porres.
    6. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy Using Market Expectations," Working Papers 2012-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Salas, Jorge, 2011. "Estimación bayesiana de unmodelo de pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 41-62.
    8. Renzo Rossini & Zenon Quispe & Jorge Loyola, 2012. "Fiscal policy considerations in the design of monetary policy in Peru," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 253-267, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Aguirre, John & Arrieta, Johar & Castillo, Luis E. & Florián, David & Ledesma, Alan & Martinez, Jefferson & Morales, Valeria & Vélez, Amilcar, 2023. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral: Una Actualización Hasta 2019," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 42, pages 9-58.
    10. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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