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Measuring External Risks for Peru: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

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  • Mr. Fei Han

Abstract

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China’s investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconomic model for a small open and partially dollarized economy is developed and estimated for Peru to measure the risk spillovers, and simulate domestic macroeconomic responses in different scenarios with these two external risks. The simulation results suggest that Peru’s output is vulnerable to both risks, particularly the U.S. monetary policy tightening. Simulations also highlight the importance of higher exchange rate flexiblity and a lower degree of dollarization, which could help mitigate the negative spillover effects of these external risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Fei Han, 2014. "Measuring External Risks for Peru: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy," IMF Working Papers 2014/161, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Salas, Jorge, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of a Simple Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy," Working Papers 2010-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
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    5. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis: A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 2006/081, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    2. Waldo Mendoza Bellido, 2017. "La macroeconomía de la flotación sucia en una economía primario exportadora: el caso del Perú," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 40(79), pages 105-132.
    3. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Paulo Chávez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Time changing effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru: empirical application using regime-switching VAR models with stochastic volatility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 505-544, May.
    5. José Luis Nolazco & Patricia Lengua-Lafosse & Nikita Céspedes Reynaga, 2020. "Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Capítulos de libros, in: Nikita Céspedes Reynaga & Norman V. Loayza & Nelson R. Ramírez Rondán (ed.), Crecimiento económico en el Perú: causas y consecuencias, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 74-117, Universidad de San Martín de Porres.
    6. Olatunji Abdul Shobande & Oladimeji Tomiwa Shodipe, 2021. "Monetary Policy Interdependency in Fisher Effect: A Comparative Evidence," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(1), pages 203-226.

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