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The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia

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  • Takeuchi, Fumihide

Abstract

This paper analyzes factors contributing to the observed increase in international business cycle synchronization between eight East Asian developing countries and the major developed economies of Japan and the United States. To this end, a two-country dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model is proposed which focuses on the role of production fragmentation among these countries. A key feature of the model is that it includes the trade in differentiated capital goods, which are added to the capital stock for production, and the technology embodied in these capital goods. The parameters of the model are calibrated using actual data of the countries included. Model simulations are conducted for two periods (1993–1997 and 1999–2005), before and after the Asian financial crisis, showing that the increase in business cycle synchronization can be attributed mainly to the growing fragmentation of production activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Takeuchi, Fumihide, 2011. "The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 441-459.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:22:y:2011:i:6:p:441-459
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2011.07.003
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    3. Masahito Ambashi & Fusanori Iwasaki & Keita Oikawa, 2022. "Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States, 1990-2021," KIER Working Papers 1088, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Ďurčová, Júlia & Mirdala, Rajmund, 2016. "Offshoring Intensities and Skill Upgrading of Employment in the Slovak Republic," MPRA Paper 79921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Silvia Amato, 2016. "East Asia Industrial Conversion Activity: Outlook at Post-Disaster Crisis Assessments with Technology Integration and Competitive Assimilation Modes," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-44, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International business cycle Synchronization; Fragmentation; Dynamic general equilibrium model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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