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Choques externos en la economía peruana: un enfoque de ceros y signos en un modelo BVAR

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Ganiko

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.)

  • Alvaro Jiménez

    (Consejo Fiscal del Perú.)

Abstract

Este trabajo cuantifica el impacto de un conjunto de choques externos sobre la economía peruana, los cuales son caracterizados como: i) demanda, ii) oferta, iii) financieros, y iv) precios de exportación. Utilizando datos entre 1995 y 2019, se estiman modelos VAR bayesianos con bloque exógeno, los cuales son identificados mediante restricciones de ceros y signos. Los resultados sugieren que la economía peruana está altamente expuesta a choques externos, los cuales explican alrededor del 60% de la varianza de las variables domésticas. A partir del análisis de descomposición de varianza del error de predicción, descomposición histórica, y funciones impulso-respuesta, se encuentra que los choques de demanda externa son los más relevantes para explicar la dinámica del PBI doméstico, la inflación y el tipo de cambio. Los choques de oferta externa tienen un mayor efecto sobre la inflación local, mientras que choques financieros externos tienen efectos más relevantes y duraderos sobre la tasa de interés doméstica. Por último, los choques de precios de exportación tienen efectos significativos sobre la devaluación cambiaria. JEL Classification-JE: C32, E10, F41.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Ganiko & Alvaro Jiménez, 2023. "Choques externos en la economía peruana: un enfoque de ceros y signos en un modelo BVAR," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-520, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00520
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0520
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Choques externos; Modelación macroeconómica; VAR bayesiano.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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