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Langfristige Prognose des Aufwands für Langzeitpflege

Author

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  • Thomas Url

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die Ausgaben für Pflege (2014: 8,3 Mrd. €) werden in Österreich von Bund, Ländern und privaten Haushalten finanziert. Die künftige Entwicklung des Pflegeaufwandes wird durch demographische, gesundheitliche, soziale und wirtschaftliche Faktoren bestimmt. Während demographische, soziale und wirtschaftliche Faktoren die künftigen Pflegeausgaben steigern, sollte der verbesserte Gesundheitszustand der österreichischen Bevölkerung in Zukunft den Pflegebedarf senken. Bis 2030 wird der Bund für das Pflegegeld um knapp ein Fünftel mehr ausgeben. Dennoch sinkt das Pflegegeld bis zum Jahr 2030 von 0,8% (2014) auf 0,7% des Bruttoinlandsproduktes. Die Nettoausgaben der Bundesländer für Sachleistungen werden hingegen von 0,6% des Bruttoinlandsproduktes (2014) auf 0,9% (2030) zunehmen. Da das Pflegegeld – trotz steigender Fallzahlen – hinter dem Wirtschaftswachstum zurückbleibt, sind in Zukunft höhere Eigenbeiträge der Pflegebedürftigen zu erwarten. Restriktivere Kriterien für den Zugang zum Pflegegeld, potentielle Qualitätsverschlechterungen oder eine beschränkte Ausweitung der Sachleistungen eröffnen ein zusätzliches Potential für die private Pflegeversicherung.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Url, 2016. "Langfristige Prognose des Aufwands für Langzeitpflege," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58844.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:58844
    Note: With English abstract.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Url & Rob J. Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term Forecasts of Age-specific Labour Market Participation Rates with Functional Data Models," WIFO Working Papers 510, WIFO.
    2. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496, September.
    3. Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2022. "Langfristige Perspektiven der öffentlichen Finanzen in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 70395.
    4. Stefan Schiman, 2016. "Langfristige Perspektiven der öffentlichen Finanzen in Österreich. Projektionen des Staatshaushalts bis 2060," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58802.
    5. Thomas Url & Rob J Hyndman & Alexander Dokumentov, 2016. "Long-term forecasts of age-specific participation rates with functional data models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    6. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Sandra Müllbacher, 2014. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM). New Results (2014)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wifo, 2020. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 6/2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(6), June.

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