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Langfristige Perspektiven der öffentlichen Finanzen in Österreich

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  • Stefan Schiman-Vukan

Abstract

Künftige demographische Veränderungen, insbesondere die Zunahme der älteren Bevölkerung, haben bedeutende Auswirkungen auf den Staatshaushalt. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht den Einfluss des demographischen Wandels auf die öffentlichen Ausgaben in den Bereichen Pensionen, Gesundheit, Bildung, Pflege und Familie unter Berücksichtigung bestehender gesetzlicher Regelungen. Die Ergebnisse hängen erheblich von bestimmten Rahmenbedingungen ab, wie etwa der künftigen Entwicklung der Produktivität. Jedenfalls werden der Wechsel geburtenstarker Kohorten ("Babyboomer") von der Erwerbstätigkeit in das Pensionsalter sowie der Anstieg der Lebenserwartung und die damit verbundene stärkere Inanspruchnahme von Gesundheits- und Pflegeleistungen eine Zunahme der (öffentlichen) Sozialausgaben zur Folge haben. Das aktuelle Niedrigzinsumfeld, das wohl noch einige Jahre anhalten wird, hilft die Belastung des Staatshaushaltes durch den Anstieg der Sozialausgaben zu dämpfen. Mittelfristig wird die Staatsschuldenquote weiter sinken, langfristig dürften Primärdefizite, Zinsausgaben und Staatsschulden wieder zunehmen.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2019. "Langfristige Perspektiven der öffentlichen Finanzen in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 62243, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:62243
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2023. "Budgetpolitik in einem unsicheren ökonomischen und geopolitischen Umfeld. Bundesvoranschlag 2024 und Mittelfristiger Finanzrahmen 2024 bis 2027," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(12), pages 833-844, December.
    3. Simon Loretz & Hans Pitlik, 2024. "Österreichischer Stabilitätspakt 2012 und föderative Lastenverschiebungen. Eine Projektion für die Jahre 2024 bis 2028," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 71320.
    4. Angela Köppl & Stefan Schleicher & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2023. "Klima- und umweltrelevante öffentliche Ausgaben in Österreich," WIFO Working Papers 655, WIFO.
    5. Wifo, 2020. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 6/2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(6), June.
    6. Thomas Url, 2016. "Langfristige Prognose des Aufwands für Langzeitpflege," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58844.

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