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Ein demographisches Porträt der osteuropäischen Beitrittsländer

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  • Dickmann, Nicola

Abstract

Im Mai 2004 wird die Bevölkerung der Europäischen Union mit den zehn Beitrittskandidaten um 74,8 Millionen auf 454,4 Millionen Menschen wachsen. Davon kommen 73,7 Millionen Menschen aus den mittel- und osteuropäischen Beitrittsländern. Die Bevölkerung in Mittel- und Osteuropa ist im Durchschnitt jünger als die in den bisherigen EU-Ländern. Aber bereits heute sinkt die Einwohnerzahl in diesen acht Beitrittsländern, und ihr Durchschnittsalter steigt an. Die vormals kommunistischen Länder hatten zuletzt die weltweit niedrigsten Geburtenraten und werden daher in Zukunft stark altern und schrumpfen. Die Abwanderung verschärft in einigen Staaten noch die demographische Situation. Über das mögliche Ausmaß der Wanderungsströme von Ost- nach Westeuropa nach dem EU-Beitritt gehen die Erwartungen weit auseinander. Die getroffenen Übergangsregelungen werden die Migration in den kommenden sieben Jahren vorerst begrenzen.

Suggested Citation

  • Dickmann, Nicola, 2004. "Ein demographisches Porträt der osteuropäischen Beitrittsländer," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 31(1), pages 21-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwktre:156858
    DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.04-01-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Straubhaar, Thomas, 2001. "Ost-West-Migrations-Potential: Wie Gross Ist Es?," Discussion Paper Series 26334, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    2. Herbert Brücker & Christian Weise, 2001. "EU-Osterweiterung: Abschottung oder regulierte Öffnung?: Zu den Übergangsfristen für die Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 68(31), pages 473-481.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2001. "Zuwanderung nach der EU-Osterweiterung: Wo liegen die Probleme?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(08), pages 18-27, May.
    4. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2000. "Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams," IZA Discussion Papers 183, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    1. Buttler, Friedrich & Schoof, Ulrich & Walwei, Ulrich, 2006. "The European Social Model and eastern enlargement," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 97-122.
    2. Peter, Waltraut, 2004. "Sozialleistungsansprüche von EU-Ausländern in Deutschland," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 31(1), pages 62-67.
    3. Manfred Perlitz & Lasse Schulze & Christina B. Wilke, 2010. "The demographic and economic transition in Central and Eastern Europe – Management implications," Journal of East European Management Studies, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 15(2), pages 149-176.
    4. Pimpertz, Jochen, 2004. "Soziale Sicherung in Mittel- und Osteuropa," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 31(1), pages 56-61.
    5. Buttler, Friedrich & Schoof, Ulrich & Walwei, Ulrich, 2006. "The European Social Model and eastern enlargement," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 97-122.

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