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Ost-West-Migrationspotenzial: Wie groß ist es? / East-West-Migration Potential: How many will go West?

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  • Straubhaar Thomas

    (Neuer Jungfernstieg 21, D-20347 Hamburg)

Abstract

How many people from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) will go West making use of the free movement of people after the EU East enlargement? An extrapolation of the empirical experience of the EU South enlargement shows that the emigration potential might reach a corridor between 0.2 % to 0.4 % of total CEEC-population per year. Annual net migraton (including return migration) might be about 0.1 % of total CEEC-population. If we assume that in a first wave 8 countries from CEEC will become EU members (i. e. Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovk Republic, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia), the East-West migration potential will be about 3 % - 4 % (gross) and 11/2 % - 2% (net) of the total CEEC-population within the first 15 years after accession. This is about 3 million people (gross) resp. 1 to 1.5 million people (net) or about 0.8.% of the total EU population. Therefore, fears of "mass migration" seem highly exaggerated. Muchmore, with regard to the decline of the EU population and the ageing of the society the expected East-West-migration potentials will generate rather positive consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Straubhaar Thomas, 2002. "Ost-West-Migrationspotenzial: Wie groß ist es? / East-West-Migration Potential: How many will go West?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(1), pages 22-41, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:222:y:2002:i:1:p:22-41
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2002-0104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.

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