IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/espost/216880.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Educational expectations in the great recession: has the impact of family background become stronger?

Author

Listed:
  • Salazar, Leire
  • Cebolla-Boado, Héctor
  • Radl, Jonas

Abstract

This article addresses the impact of economic climate, and particularly of the Great Recession, on the configuration of educational expectations among students around 14 years old. We analyze expectations regarding educational attainment conditional on school performance and compare our results across countries with varying levels of economic growth over time. We expect a changing economic environment to impact on (a) the average level of educational expectations, (b) the association between social background and expectations, and (c) the association between school grades and expectations. Using pooled data from TIMSS for the years 2003, 2007 and 2011 among 8th graders for 24 developed countries, we estimate a set of country-fixed effects and hierarchical random-slope linear regression models. Most notably, our results indicate that economic down times depress educational expectations, especially among average-performing students, and lead to a growth in educational inequalities by family background.

Suggested Citation

  • Salazar, Leire & Cebolla-Boado, Héctor & Radl, Jonas, 2020. "Educational expectations in the great recession: has the impact of family background become stronger?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 465-491.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:216880
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/216880/3/Full-text-article-Salazar-et_al-Educational-expectations.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Botelho, Anabela & Pinto, Ligia Costa, 2004. "Students' expectations of the economic returns to college education: results of a controlled experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 645-653, December.
    2. Ross Whitehead & Dorothy Currie & Jo Inchley & Candace Currie, 2015. "Educational expectations and adolescent health behaviour: an evolutionary approach," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 60(5), pages 599-608, July.
    3. Samuel R. Lucas, 2009. "Stratification Theory, Socioeconomic Background, and Educational Attainment," Rationality and Society, , vol. 21(4), pages 459-511, November.
    4. Matthew T. Johnson, 2013. "The Impact of Business Cycle Fluctuations on Graduate School Enrollment," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 77da29f047574fbfb5f216d63, Mathematica Policy Research.
    5. Dellas, Harris & Koubi, Vally, 2003. "Business cycles and schooling," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 843-859, November.
    6. Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Simon Field & Nathalie Girouard, 2002. "Investment in Human Capital Through Post-Compulsory Education and Training: Selected Efficiency and Equity Aspects," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 333, OECD Publishing.
    7. Katja Möhring & Alexander Schmidt, 2012. "Multilevel tools," German Stata Users' Group Meetings 2012 06, Stata Users Group.
    8. Stevens, Ann Huff & Schaller, Jessamyn, 2011. "Short-run effects of parental job loss on children's academic achievement," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 289-299, April.
    9. Stephen L. Morgan, 1998. "Adolescent Educational Expectations," Rationality and Society, , vol. 10(2), pages 131-162, May.
    10. Johnson, Matthew T., 2013. "The impact of business cycle fluctuations on graduate school enrollment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 122-134.
    11. Heisig, Jan Paul & Schaeffer, Merlin & Giesecke, Johannes, 2017. "The Costs of Simplicity: Why Multilevel Models May Benefit from Accounting for Cross-Cluster Differences in the Effects of Controls," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 82(4), pages 796-827.
    12. Robert Jensen, 2010. "The (Perceived) Returns to Education and the Demand for Schooling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(2), pages 515-548.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jósef Sigurdsson, 2023. "Transitory Earnings Opportunities and Educational Scarring of Men," CESifo Working Paper Series 10361, CESifo.
    2. Barbara Sadaba & Sunčica Vujič & Sofia Maier, 2020. "Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 20-38, Bank of Canada.
    3. Sadaba, Barbara & Vujić, Sunčica & Maier, Sofia, 2024. "Characterizing the schooling cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Stratton, Leslie S., 2017. "Housing Prices, Unemployment Rates, Disadvantage, and Progress toward a Degree," IZA Discussion Papers 10941, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Jennifer Graves & Zoë Kuehn, 2022. "Higher education decisions and macroeconomic conditions at age eighteen," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 171-241, May.
    6. Díaz Serrano, Lluís & Nilsson, William,, 2018. "School Dropouts and the Local Labor Markets: The Role of the Skills Structure of the Employment," Working Papers 2072/351583, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    7. Luis Diaz‐Serrano & William Nilsson, 2020. "The regional anatomy of youths' educational attainment in Spain: The role of the employment structure in local labour markets," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(5), pages 1487-1508, October.
    8. Diaz-Serrano, Luis & Nilsson, William, 2020. "The Regional Anatomy of School Dropouts in Spain: The Role of the Industry Structure of Local Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13220, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Pratikshya Sapkota & Umesh Bastola, 2015. "On the relationship between business cycle and college enrollment in the U.S.: a time series approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 7-16.
    10. Sigurdsson, Jósef, 2023. "Transitory Earnings Opportunities and Educational Scarring of Men," IZA Discussion Papers 16050, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Lance Lochner & Youngmin Park, 2017. "Correlation, Consumption, Confusion, or Constraints: Why Do Poor Children Perform so Poorly?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 119(1), pages 102-147, January.
    12. Bednar, Steven & Gicheva, Dora, 2013. "Tax benefits for graduate education: Incentives for whom?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 181-197.
    13. Erica Blom & Brian C. Cadena & Benjamin J. Keys, 2021. "Investment over the Business Cycle: Insights from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1043-1082.
    14. Heisig, Jan Paul & Schaeffer, Merlin, 2019. "Why You Should Always Include a Random Slope for the Lower-Level Variable Involved in a Cross-Level Interaction," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 258-279.
    15. Chadi, Adrian & de Pinto, Marco & Schultze, Gabriel, 2019. "Young, gifted and lazy? The role of ability and labor market prospects in student effort decisions," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 66-79.
    16. Fumihiko Suga, 2020. "The returns to postgraduate education in Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 571-596, October.
    17. Keller, Tamás, 2016. "Ha a jegyek nem elég jók... Az önértékelés szerepe a felsőoktatásba való jelentkezésben [Self-assessment and its effects on applications for tertiary education]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 62-78.
    18. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2017. "Endogenous cycles and human capital," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 31-45, January.
    19. Annika C. Froehlich, 2016. "Does the curricular structure affect doctoral enrolment?," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(9), pages 1067-1089, December.
    20. Ilya Prakhov, 2017. "Determinants of Expected Return on Higher Education in Moscow," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 1, pages 25-57.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; inequality; education; crises; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:216880. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.