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Adolescent Educational Expectations

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  • Stephen L. Morgan

Abstract

Educational expectations are not perfect forecasts of how much education students will acquire. Nonetheless, we should not treat educational expectations as affective fantasies or status-based value orientations. Educational expectations are educational intentions, generated from rational calculations of the costs and benefits of educational training but subject to constant revision in response to new information. This conclusion is supported by an analysis of the association between family-background-adjusted educational expectations of high-school seniors and earnings returns on educational investments of labor market participants between the ages of 26 and 35 years. After an adjustment for family background differences, White high school seniors had lower educational expectations than Black high school seniors in the late 1970s, but increased their expectations relatively more than Black students in the 1980s. Earnings returns on education follow similar patterns across race and sex groups. If educational expectations are overly optimistic, but still based on reasonable cost-benefit calculations, then they can be considered rational fantasies. Further research is needed to determine whether this last possibility is supported by empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen L. Morgan, 1998. "Adolescent Educational Expectations," Rationality and Society, , vol. 10(2), pages 131-162, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ratsoc:v:10:y:1998:i:2:p:131-162
    DOI: 10.1177/104346398010002001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marina Lagemann & Peter Winker, 2022. "Inconsistent response behavior: A potential pitfall in modeling the link between educational attainment and social network characteristics," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202202, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Elizabeth Raleigh & Grace Kao, 2010. "Do Immigrant Minority Parents Have More Consistent College Aspirations for Their Children?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1083-1102, December.
    3. Dirk Witteveen & Paul Attewell, 2022. "Black-White incentive inequality for college persistence," Rationality and Society, , vol. 34(2), pages 155-184, May.
    4. Parker, Philip D. & Jerrim, John & Schoon, Ingrid & Marsh, Herbert W., 2016. "A multination study of socioeconomic inequality in expectations for progression to higher education: the role of between-school tracking and ability stratification," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 6-32.
    5. Robert Bozick & Trey Miller, 2014. "In-State College Tuition Policies for Undocumented Immigrants: Implications for High School Enrollment Among Non-citizen Mexican Youth," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(1), pages 13-30, February.
    6. Ariana Need & Uulkje de Jong, 2001. "Educational Differentials In The Netherlands," Rationality and Society, , vol. 13(1), pages 71-98, February.
    7. Anders Holm & Mads Meier Jæger, 2005. "Relative Risk Aversion and Social Reproduction in Intergenerational Educational Attainment: Application of a Dynamic Discrete Choice Mode," CAM Working Papers 2006-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
    8. Stephen Vaisey, 2010. "What People Want: Rethinking Poverty, Culture, and Educational Attainment," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 629(1), pages 75-101, May.
    9. Hartung, Andreas & Wessling, Katarina & Hillmert, Steffen, 2019. "Educational and occupational aspirations at the end of secondary school: The importance of regional labour-market conditions," ROA Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    10. Finger, Claudia, 2016. "Institutional constraints and the translation of college aspirations into intentions—Evidence from a factorial survey," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 46, pages 112-128.
    11. Dominik Becker, 2013. "The impact of teachers’ expectations on students’ educational opportunities in the life course: An empirical test of a subjective expected utility explanation," Rationality and Society, , vol. 25(4), pages 422-469, November.
    12. Kroneberg, Clemens & Stocké, Volker & Yaish, Meir, 2006. "Norms or rationality? : The rescue of jews, electoral participation, and educational decisions," Papers 06-09, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    13. J. François Outreville, 2015. "The Relationship Between Relative Risk Aversion And The Level Of Education: A Survey And Implications For The Demand For Life Insurance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 97-111, February.
    14. Palacios-Abad, Alberto, 2021. "Strive to Succeed? The Role of Persistence in the Process of Educational Attainment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 65(11), pages 1555-1576.
    15. Min-Dong Lee, 2006. "Widening Gap of Educational Opportunity?: A Longitudinal Study of Educational Inequality in China," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-66, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Mads Meier Jæger, 2007. "Economic and Social Returns To Educational Choices," Rationality and Society, , vol. 19(4), pages 451-483, November.
    17. J. Francois Outreville, 2014. "Risk Aversion, Risk Behavior, and Demand for Insurance: A Survey," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 158-186.
    18. Stephen L. Morgan, 2002. "Modeling Preparatory Commitment and Non-repeatable Decisions," Rationality and Society, , vol. 14(4), pages 387-429, November.
    19. Carlos J. Gil-Hernández & Pablo Gracia, 2018. "Adolescents' educational aspirations and ethnic background: The case of students of African and Latin American migrant origins in Spain," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(23), pages 577-618.
    20. Hartung, Andreas & Wessling, Katarina & Hillmert, Steffen, 2019. "Educational and occupational aspirations at the end of secondary school: The importance of regional labour-market conditions," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    21. Stephen L. Morgan, 2004. "Methodologist as Arbitrator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 33(1), pages 3-53, August.
    22. Salazar, Leire & Cebolla-Boado, Héctor & Radl, Jonas, 2020. "Educational expectations in the great recession: has the impact of family background become stronger?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 465-491.
    23. Stocké, Volker, 2008. "Educational decisions as rational choice? : an empirical test of the Erikson-Jonsson model for explaining educational attainment," Papers 08-03, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.

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