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Good Girl, Bad Boy? Evidence Consistent with Collusion in Professional Tennis

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  • Michael Jetter
  • Jay K. Walker

Abstract

We identify professional tennis matches where one player competes for extraordinarily high payoffs while their opposition does not. Players “on the bubble” of direct qualification to upcoming Grand Slam events face substantially higher stakes than opponents, which presents an opportunity for collusion. Our findings produce evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis of unethical behavior taking place on the men's tour, as bubble players are 5.1 percentage points more likely to beat better ranked opponents than in comparable nonbubble matches. However, no such evidence emerges when analyzing women's tennis. We find additional support for the hypothesis of match‐fixing activities on the men's tour from analyzing the occurrence of tie‐breaks and the fact that our results become stronger once monetary incentives were increased after the 2013 season. Finally, the betting market does not predict this phenomenon, further confirming our suspicion of irregular activities.

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  • Michael Jetter & Jay K. Walker, 2017. "Good Girl, Bad Boy? Evidence Consistent with Collusion in Professional Tennis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(1), pages 155-180, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:84:y:2017:i:1:p:155-180
    DOI: 10.1002/soej.12213
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Iqbal, Hamzah & Krumer, Alex, 2017. "Discouragement Effect and Intermediate Prizes in Multi-Stage Contests: Evidence from Tennis’s Davis Cup," Economics Working Paper Series 1719, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    2. Deutscher, Christian & Neuberg, Lena & Thiem, Stefan, 2023. "Who’s afraid of the GOATs? - Shadow effects of tennis superstars," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Leonid Krasnozhon & John Levendis, 2018. "Weekend racer: cheating and self-governance in road racing," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 75-90, February.
    4. Iqbal, Hamzah & Krumer, Alex, 2019. "Discouragement effect and intermediate prizes in multi-stage contests: Evidence from Davis Cup," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 364-381.

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