IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v226y2022ics095183202200285x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards real-time ship collision risk analysis: An improved R-TCR model considering target ship motion uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Mengxia
  • Mou, Junmin
  • Chen, Pengfei
  • Rong, Hao
  • Chen, Linying
  • van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

Abstract

Collision between ships is one of the major contributors to ship accidents. To facilitate the development of the real-time collision risk analysis model for collision avoidance, in this research, an improved Rule-aware Time-varying Collision risk Model is proposed, which considers the estimation of target ship motion and the corresponding uncertainty in the risk analysis process. To make the collision risk model more in line with the actual situation, ship maneuverability, the COLREGs, and good seamanship are considered and integrated into the framework of the TCR model. Firstly, the Gaussian process is used to predict the potential trajectories of the target ship. Secondly, the Probabilistic Velocity Obstacle (PVO) model is utilized to integrate the uncertainty of the target ship's motion into the collision risk model. The collision risk is therefore formulated as a ratio of available maneuvers leading to a collision to all available maneuvers. To verify the effectiveness of collision risk, two actual target ships and six groups of collision risk detection experiments under different encounter scenarios were carried out. Compared with the traditional collision risk index model and original R-TCR model, the collision risk detected by the Improved R-TCR model is closer to the actual situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Mengxia & Mou, Junmin & Chen, Pengfei & Rong, Hao & Chen, Linying & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., 2022. "Towards real-time ship collision risk analysis: An improved R-TCR model considering target ship motion uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:226:y:2022:i:c:s095183202200285x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183202200285X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108650?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xin, Xuri & Liu, Kezhong & Yang, Zaili & Zhang, Jinfen & Wu, Xiaolie, 2021. "A probabilistic risk approach for the collision detection of multi-ships under spatiotemporal movement uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Du, Lei & Banda, Osiris A. Valdez & Huang, Yamin & Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti & Zhang, Weibin, 2021. "An empirical ship domain based on evasive maneuver and perceived collision risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    3. Cai, Mingyou & Zhang, Jinfen & Zhang, Di & Yuan, Xiaoli & Soares, C. Guedes, 2021. "Collision risk analysis on ferry ships in Jiangsu Section of the Yangtze River based on AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Li, Mengxia & Mou, Junmin & Chen, Linying & He, Yixiong & Huang, Yamin, 2021. "A rule-aware time-varying conflict risk measure for MASS considering maritime practice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    5. Szlapczynski, Rafal & Szlapczynska, Joanna, 2021. "A ship domain-based model of collision risk for near-miss detection and Collision Alert Systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    6. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Maritime traffic probabilistic prediction based on ship motion pattern extraction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Yamin Huang & P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder, 2020. "Time‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 24-42, January.
    8. Silveira, P. & Teixeira, A.P. & Figueira, J.R. & Guedes Soares, C., 2021. "A multicriteria outranking approach for ship collision risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xin, Xuri & Liu, Kezhong & Loughney, Sean & Wang, Jin & Li, Huanhuan & Ekere, Nduka & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Multi-scale collision risk estimation for maritime traffic in complex port waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gao, Dawei & Zhu, Yongsheng & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Uncertainty modelling and dynamic risk assessment for long-sequence AIS trajectory based on multivariate Gaussian Process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    2. Gil, Mateusz & Kozioł, Paweł & Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub, 2022. "Know your safety indicator – A determination of merchant vessels Bow Crossing Range based on big data analytics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    3. Gao, Dawei & Zhu, Yongsheng & Yan, Ke & Soares, C. Guedes, 2024. "Deep learning–based framework for regional risk assessment in a multi–ship encounter situation based on the transformer network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Maritime traffic probabilistic prediction based on ship motion pattern extraction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Zhang, Jinfen & Liu, Jiongjiong & Hirdaris, Spyros & Zhang, Mingyang & Tian, Wuliu, 2023. "An interpretable knowledge-based decision support method for ship collision avoidance using AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    6. Zhang, Mingyang & Kujala, Pentti & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "A machine learning method for the evaluation of ship grounding risk in real operational conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    7. Xin, Xuri & Liu, Kezhong & Loughney, Sean & Wang, Jin & Li, Huanhuan & Ekere, Nduka & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Multi-scale collision risk estimation for maritime traffic in complex port waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    8. Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Ruponen, Pekka & Tompuri, Markus & Gil, Mateusz & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "Accident susceptibility index for a passenger ship-a framework and case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    9. Mazurek, J. & Lu, L. & Krata, P. & Montewka, J. & Krata, H. & Kujala, P., 2022. "An updated method identifying collision-prone locations for ships. A case study for oil tankers navigating in the Gulf of Finland," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    10. Mauro, Francesco & Vassalos, Dracos & Paterson, Donald, 2022. "Critical damages identification in a multi-level damage stability assessment framework for passenger ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    11. Ruponen, Pekka & Montewka, Jakub & Tompuri, Markus & Manderbacka, Teemu & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "A framework for onboard assessment and monitoring of flooding risk due to open watertight doors for passenger ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    12. Zyczkowski, Marcin & Szlapczynski, Rafal, 2023. "Collision risk-informed weather routing for sailboats," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    13. Zvyagina, Tatiana & Zvyagin, Petr, 2022. "A model of multi-objective route optimization for a vessel in drifting ice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    14. Xin, Xuri & Liu, Kezhong & Loughney, Sean & Wang, Jin & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Maritime traffic clustering to capture high-risk multi-ship encounters in complex waters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    15. Antão, P. & Sun, S. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Quantitative assessment of ship collision risk influencing factors from worldwide accident and fleet data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    16. Li, Baode & Lu, Jing & Li, Jing & Zhu, Xuebin & Huang, Chuan & Su, Wan, 2022. "Scenario evolutionary analysis for maritime emergencies using an ensemble belief rule base," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    17. Li, Mengxia & Mou, Junmin & Chen, Linying & He, Yixiong & Huang, Yamin, 2021. "A rule-aware time-varying conflict risk measure for MASS considering maritime practice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    18. Ahmed, Umair & Carpitella, Silvia & Certa, Antonella, 2021. "An integrated methodological approach for optimising complex systems subjected to predictive maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    19. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2024. "A framework for ship abnormal behaviour detection and classification using AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    20. Wang, Yang & Chen, Peng & Wu, Bing & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili, 2022. "A trustable architecture over blockchain to facilitate maritime administration for MASS systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:226:y:2022:i:c:s095183202200285x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.