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A rule-aware time-varying conflict risk measure for MASS considering maritime practice

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  • Li, Mengxia
  • Mou, Junmin
  • Chen, Linying
  • He, Yixiong
  • Huang, Yamin

Abstract

Conflict detection is a vital step of collision prevention at sea, determining if there is a risk of collision and when to take preventing actions. This article proposes a practical Rule-aware Time-varying Conflict Risk (R-TCR) for ship collision avoidance. Considering maritime practice, the conflict risk measure takes the ship maneuverability, the COLREGs, and good seamanship into account in the conflict risk measure. Specifically, the conflict risk is formulated as a ratio of achievable maneuvers leading to a collision to all achievable maneuvers. Simulations are carried out to show the characteristics of R-TCR. The results show that the R-TCR evaluates the entire conflict risk incorporating COLREG rules, multiple targets, different maneuverability, and varying ship domains. Finally, the proposed measure is applied to analyze the collision accident between two ships. Compared with the conventional risk indicators, the proposed R-TCR can deliver extra information to users, such as providing early warning, showing the room-for-maneuver, and suggesting evasive actions. Besides, the extra information also supports collision avoidance for autonomous ships.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Mengxia & Mou, Junmin & Chen, Linying & He, Yixiong & Huang, Yamin, 2021. "A rule-aware time-varying conflict risk measure for MASS considering maritime practice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:215:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021003380
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107816
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goerlandt, Floris & Montewka, Jakub, 2015. "Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 115-134.
    2. Yamin Huang & P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder, 2020. "Time‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 24-42, January.
    3. Aven, Terje, 2012. "The risk concept—historical and recent development trends," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 33-44.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2024. "A framework for ship abnormal behaviour detection and classification using AIS data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    2. Rong, H. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Maritime traffic probabilistic prediction based on ship motion pattern extraction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Montewka, Jakub & Manderbacka, Teemu & Ruponen, Pekka & Tompuri, Markus & Gil, Mateusz & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "Accident susceptibility index for a passenger ship-a framework and case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    4. Zvyagina, Tatiana & Zvyagin, Petr, 2022. "A model of multi-objective route optimization for a vessel in drifting ice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    5. Li, Mengxia & Mou, Junmin & Chen, Pengfei & Rong, Hao & Chen, Linying & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., 2022. "Towards real-time ship collision risk analysis: An improved R-TCR model considering target ship motion uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    6. Johansen, Thomas & Blindheim, Simon & Torben, Tobias Rye & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Johansen, Tor Arne & Sørensen, Asgeir J., 2023. "Development and testing of a risk-based control system for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    7. Wang, Yang & Chen, Peng & Wu, Bing & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili, 2022. "A trustable architecture over blockchain to facilitate maritime administration for MASS systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    8. Gil, Mateusz & Kozioł, Paweł & Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub, 2022. "Know your safety indicator – A determination of merchant vessels Bow Crossing Range based on big data analytics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).

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