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Systems analysis for energy assets of Iraq influenced by water scarcity

Author

Listed:
  • Megan C. Marcellin

    (University of Virginia)

  • Gigi Pavur

    (University of Virginia)

  • Davis C. Loose

    (University of Virginia)

  • John J. Cardenas

    (United States Agency for International Development)

  • David Denehy

    (United States Agency for International Development)

  • Mustafa Almashhadani

    (United States Agency for International Development)

  • Saddam Q. Waheed

    (Ministry of Water Resources)

  • Benjamin D. Trump

    (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

  • Thomas L. Polmateer

    (University of Virginia)

  • Igor Linkov

    (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

  • Venkataraman Lakshmi

    (University of Virginia)

  • James H. Lambert

    (University of Virginia
    University of Virginia)

Abstract

Water security in arid and semi-arid Middle Eastern climates has been severely impacted by effects of climate change such as reduced precipitation, diminished storage, increased evapotranspiration, and prolonged heat waves. These climate effects are compounded in Iraq, where populations, agriculture, industry, and energy rely heavily on varying transboundary water flows to meet water demands. Iraq’s most profitable sector, energy, is especially threatened by insufficient water supply, which complicates government decision making in energy infrastructure development. The goal of this paper is to develop a scenario-based multi-criteria analysis framework to prioritize infrastructure investments in the context of climate change and scarcity of natural resources. Infrastructure facilities are evaluated against social, economic, climate, and hydrologic criteria across a set of disruptive climatological, economic, and social scenarios to identify robust initiatives and the most and least disruptive scenarios to the system. A particular innovation of this paper is the evaluation of hydrology data derived from satellites in determining water scarcity impact on individual energy facilities. The methods are demonstrated for a critical sector of Iraq’s economy: oil and natural gas. The demonstration includes 13 system-order criteria, 44 oil and gas initiatives within Iraq, and seven risk scenarios. The results include an accounting of the most and least disruptive scenarios to energy sector priorities and scenario-based system orderings to guide stakeholders in investment prioritization.

Suggested Citation

  • Megan C. Marcellin & Gigi Pavur & Davis C. Loose & John J. Cardenas & David Denehy & Mustafa Almashhadani & Saddam Q. Waheed & Benjamin D. Trump & Thomas L. Polmateer & Igor Linkov & Venkataraman Laks, 2024. "Systems analysis for energy assets of Iraq influenced by water scarcity," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 259-279, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:envsyd:v:44:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s10669-024-09967-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10669-024-09967-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José Manuel Palma‐Oliveira & Benjamin D. Trump & Matthew D. Wood & Igor Linkov, 2018. "Community‐Driven Hypothesis Testing: A Solution for the Tragedy of the Anticommons," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 620-634, March.
    2. Elizabeth B. Connelly & Lisa M. Colosi & Andres F. Clarens & James H. Lambert, 2015. "Risk Analysis of Biofuels Industry for Aviation with Scenario‐Based Expert Elicitation," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 178-191, March.
    3. Heimir Thorisson & James H. Lambert & John J. Cardenas & Igor Linkov, 2017. "Resilience Analytics with Application to Power Grid of a Developing Region," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1268-1286, July.
    4. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
    5. Michelle C. Hamilton & Shital A. Thekdi & Elisabeth M. Jenicek & Russell S. Harmon & Michael E. Goodsite & Michael P. Case & Christopher W. Karvetski & James H. Lambert, 2013. "Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 89-103, March.
    6. Matthew J. Schroeder & James H. Lambert, 2011. "Scenario-based multiple criteria analysis for infrastructure policy impacts and planning," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 191-214, February.
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