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Risk Management of Domino Effects Considering Dynamic Consequence Analysis

Author

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  • Nima Khakzad
  • Faisal Khan
  • Paul Amyotte
  • Valerio Cozzani

Abstract

Domino effects are low‐probability high‐consequence accidents causing severe damage to humans, process plants, and the environment. Because domino effects affect large areas and are difficult to control, preventive safety measures have been given priority over mitigative measures. As a result, safety distances and safety inventories have been used as preventive safety measures to reduce the escalation probability of domino effects. However, these safety measures are usually designed considering static accident scenarios. In this study, we show that compared to a static worst‐case accident analysis, a dynamic consequence analysis provides a more rational approach for risk assessment and management of domino effects. This study also presents the application of Bayesian networks and conflict analysis to risk‐based allocation of chemical inventories to minimize the consequences and thus to reduce the escalation probability. It emphasizes the risk management of chemical inventories as an inherent safety measure, particularly in existing process plants where the applicability of other safety measures such as safety distances is limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Nima Khakzad & Faisal Khan & Paul Amyotte & Valerio Cozzani, 2014. "Risk Management of Domino Effects Considering Dynamic Consequence Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1128-1138, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:34:y:2014:i:6:p:1128-1138
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2011. "Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 925-932.
    2. Nima Khakzad & Faisal Khan & Paul Amyotte & Valerio Cozzani, 2013. "Domino Effect Analysis Using Bayesian Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 292-306, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Ruochen & Khan, Faisal & Neto, Eugenio Turco & Rusli, Riza & Ji, Jie, 2020. "Could pool fire alone cause a domino effect?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    2. Guo, Xiaoxue & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A cost-effective optimization model of safety investment allocation for risk reduction of domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    3. Nima Khakzad & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers, 2017. "Application of Graph Theory to Cost‐Effective Fire Protection of Chemical Plants During Domino Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(9), pages 1652-1667, September.
    4. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "A Petri-net approach for firefighting force allocation analysis of fire emergency response with backups," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    5. Martin Folch-Calvo & Francisco Brocal-Fernández & Cristina González-Gaya & Miguel A. Sebastián, 2020. "Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-35, September.
    6. Nima Khakzad & Faisal Khan & Paul Amyotte, 2015. "Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(7), pages 1336-1347, July.
    7. Wen Li & Yicheng Ye & Nanyan Hu & Xianhua Wang & Qihu Wang, 2019. "Real-Time Warning and Risk Assessment of Tailings Dam Disaster Status Based on Dynamic Hierarchy-Grey Relation Analysis," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, April.
    8. Lin Xie & Mary Ann Lundteigen & Yiliu Liu, 2020. "Reliability and barrier assessment of series–parallel systems subject to cascading failures," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(3), pages 455-469, June.
    9. Zeng, Tao & Wei, Lijun & Reniers, Genserik & Chen, Guohua, 2024. "A comprehensive study for probability prediction of domino effects considering synergistic effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    10. Corinne Curt & Jean‐Marc Tacnet, 2018. "Resilience of Critical Infrastructures: Review and Analysis of Current Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2441-2458, November.
    11. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2020. "A novel approach for domino effects modeling and risk analysis based on synergistic effect and accident evidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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