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FSEM: An approach to model contribution of synergistic effect of fires for domino effects

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  • Ding, Long
  • Khan, Faisal
  • Abbassi, Rouzbeh
  • Ji, Jie

Abstract

Fires are major primary events in domino effects in chemical and process industries, and released thermal radiation is a main cause of accident propagation. In fire-induced domino effects, synergistic effect of multiple burning units will increase risk of domino effects, and the synergistic effect is time-dependent. In this study, a superimposition based new approach is proposed to model the contribution of synergistic effect of fires for domino effects, and a numerical solution of the approach is developed. In this approach, the synergistic effect of fires is modeled dynamically through time-variant target unit wall temperature and received thermal flux, and the receivable thermal dose is proposed as failure criterion and is modeled. The contributions of synergistic effect on the risk of domino effects are assessed by time to failure and escalation probability of target unit. The proposed approach is able to not only model the synergistic effect of fires, but also to understand the temporal evolution of synergistic effect when higher-level accidents occur. A case study demonstrates the effectiveness, advantages, extension of the proposed approach to model the contribution of synergistic effect for domino effects risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh & Ji, Jie, 2019. "FSEM: An approach to model contribution of synergistic effect of fires for domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 271-278.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:189:y:2019:i:c:p:271-278
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.04.041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nima Khakzad & Faisal Khan & Paul Amyotte & Valerio Cozzani, 2013. "Domino Effect Analysis Using Bayesian Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(2), pages 292-306, February.
    2. Laobing Zhang & Gabriele Landucci & Genserik Reniers & Nima Khakzad & Jianfeng Zhou, 2018. "DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent‐Based Modeling and Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1585-1600, August.
    3. Khakzad, Nima, 2015. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to risk analysis of domino effects in chemical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 263-272.
    4. Hemmatian, Behrouz & Planas, Eulà lia & Casal, Joaquim, 2015. "Fire as a primary event of accident domino sequences: The case of BLEVE," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 141-148.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mingqing Su & Lijun Wei & Shennan Zhou & Guoliang Yang & Rujun Wang & Yingquan Duo & Sining Chen & Mingliang Sun & Jiahang Li & Xiangbei Kong, 2022. "Study on Dynamic Probability and Quantitative Risk Calculation Method of Domino Accident in Pool Fire in Chemical Storage Tank Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Lan, Meng & Gardoni, Paolo & Weng, Wenguo & Shen, Kaixin & He, Zhichao & Pan, Rongliang, 2024. "Modeling the evolution of industrial accidents triggered by natural disasters using dynamic graphs: A case study of typhoon-induced domino accidents in storage tank areas," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    3. Dingli Liu & Zhisheng Xu & Chuangang Fan, 2019. "Predictive analysis of fire frequency based on daily temperatures," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(3), pages 1175-1189, July.
    4. Amin, Md. Tanjin & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Cozzani, Valerio & Khan, Faisal, 2024. "Improved pool fire-initiated domino effect assessment in atmospheric tank farms using structural response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    5. Hou, Lei & Wu, Xingguang & Wu, Zhuang & Wu, Shouzhi, 2020. "Pattern identification and risk prediction of domino effect based on data mining methods for accidents occurred in the tank farm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    6. Yanyan Liu & Keping Li & Dongyang Yan & Shuang Gu, 2023. "The prediction of disaster risk paths based on IECNN model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 163-188, May.
    7. Tugnoli, Alessandro & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of domino effect and escalation scenarios caused by fragment projection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Li, Xiaofeng & Chen, Guohua & Amyotte, Paul & Khan, Faisal & Alauddin, Mohammad, 2023. "Vulnerability assessment of storage tanks exposed to simultaneous fire and explosion hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    9. Ricci, Federica & Misuri, Alessio & Scarponi, Giordano Emrys & Cozzani, Valerio & Demichela, Micaela, 2024. "Vulnerability Assessment of Industrial Sites to Interface Fires and Wildfires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    10. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2022. "A novel vulnerability model considering synergistic effect of fire and overpressure in chemical processing facilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    11. Ding, Long & Khan, Faisal & Ji, Jie, 2020. "A novel approach for domino effects modeling and risk analysis based on synergistic effect and accident evidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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