IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v187y2011i1p249-27710.1007-s10479-009-0678-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On a risk management analysis of oil spill risk using maritime transportation system simulation

Author

Listed:
  • J. Dorp
  • Jason Merrick

Abstract

Is it safer for New Orleans river gambling boats to be underway than to be dockside? Is oil transportation risk reduced by lowering wind restrictions from 45 to 35 knots at Hinchinbrook Entrance for laden oil tankers departing Valdez, Alaska? Should the International Safety Management (ISM) code be implemented fleet-wide for the Washington State Ferries in Seattle, or does it make more sense to invest in additional life craft? Can ferry service in San Francisco Bay be expanded in a safe manner to relieve high way congestion? These risk management questions were raised in a series of projects spanning a time frame of more than 10 years. They were addressed using a risk management analysis methodology developed over these years by a consortium of universities. In this paper we shall briefly review this methodology which integrates simulation of Maritime Transportation Systems (MTS) with incident/accident data collection, expert judgment elicitation and a consequence model. We shall describe recent advances with respect to this methodology in more detail. These improvements were made in the context of a two-year oil transportation risk study conducted from 2006–2008 in the Puget Sound and surrounding waters. An application of this methodology shall be presented comparing the risk reduction effectiveness analysis of a one-way zone, an escorting and a double hull requirement in the same context. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Suggested Citation

  • J. Dorp & Jason Merrick, 2011. "On a risk management analysis of oil spill risk using maritime transportation system simulation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 249-277, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:187:y:2011:i:1:p:249-277:10.1007/s10479-009-0678-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-009-0678-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10479-009-0678-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-009-0678-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy G. Fowler & Eirik Sørgård, 2000. "Modeling Ship Transportation Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 225-244, April.
    2. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Amita Singh, 2005. "Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 17-29, March.
    3. Szwed, P. & Dorp, J. Rene van & Merrick, J.R.W. & Mazzuchi, T.A. & Singh, A., 2006. "A Bayesian paired comparison approach for relative accident probability assessment with covariate information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 157-177, February.
    4. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. René van Dorp & Thomas Mazzuchi & John R. Harrald & John E. Spahn & Martha Grabowski, 2002. "The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 25-40, December.
    5. Johan R. Van Dorp & Jason R. W. Merrick & John R. Harrald & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Martha Grabowski, 2001. "A Risk Management Procedure for the Washington State Ferries," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 127-142, February.
    6. Stan Kaplan, 1997. "The Words of Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 407-417, August.
    7. Scott Andrews & Frederic H. Murphy & Xiao Pei Wang & Steve Welch, 1996. "Modeling Crude Oil Lightering in Delaware Bay," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 26(6), pages 68-78, December.
    8. Özgecan S. Ulusçu & Birnur Özbaş & Tayfur Altıok & İlhan Or, 2009. "Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1454-1472, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Montewka, Jakub & Ehlers, Sören & Goerlandt, Floris & Hinz, Tomasz & Tabri, Kristjan & Kujala, Pentti, 2014. "A framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems—A case study for open sea collisions involving RoPax vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 142-157.
    2. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    3. Zhang, Weibin & Feng, Xinyu & Goerlandt, Floris & Liu, Qing, 2020. "Towards a Convolutional Neural Network model for classifying regional ship collision risk levels for waterway risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Ditta, A. & Figueroa, O. & Galindo, G. & Yie-Pinedo, R., 2019. "A review on research in transportation of hazardous materials," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Hänninen, Maria & Kujala, Pentti, 2012. "Influences of variables on ship collision probability in a Bayesian belief network model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 27-40.
    6. Noguchi, H. & Hienuki, S. & Fuse, M., 2020. "Network theory-based accident scenario analysis for hazardous material transport: A case study of liquefied petroleum gas transport in japan," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    7. Chen, Hong & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee & Liu, Nan, 2018. "Strategic investment in enhancing port–hinterland container transportation network resilience: A network game theory approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 83-112.
    8. Stanisław Gucma & Rafal Gralak & Bartosz Muczynski & Mateusz Bilewski, 2021. "Navigational Risk of Ships Proceeding Through a Fairway," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 811-832.
    9. Goerlandt, Floris & Montewka, Jakub, 2015. "Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 115-134.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suyi Li & Qiang Meng & Xiaobo Qu, 2012. "An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 496-512, March.
    2. Jason R. W. Merrick & Rene Van Dorp, 2006. "Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 223-237, February.
    3. Gino J. Lim & Jaeyoung Cho & Selim Bora & Taofeek Biobaku & Hamid Parsaei, 2018. "Models and computational algorithms for maritime risk analysis: a review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 765-786, December.
    4. Jason R. W. Merrick & Claire A. Dorsey & Bo Wang & Martha Grabowski & John R. Harrald, 2022. "Measuring Prediction Accuracy in a Maritime Accident Warning System," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(2), pages 819-827, February.
    5. J Montewka & P Krata & F Goerlandt & A Mazaheri & P Kujala, 2011. "Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 225(3), pages 307-322, September.
    6. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene Van Dorp & Varun Dinesh, 2005. "Assessing Uncertainty in Simulation‐Based Maritime Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 731-743, June.
    7. Jason R. W. Merrick & John R. Harrald, 2007. "Making Decisions About Safety in US Ports and Waterways," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(3), pages 240-252, June.
    8. Özgecan S. Ulusçu & Birnur Özbaş & Tayfur Altıok & İlhan Or, 2009. "Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1454-1472, October.
    9. Goerlandt, Floris & Montewka, Jakub, 2015. "Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 115-134.
    10. Wang, Huanxin & Liu, Zhengjiang & Wang, Xinjian & Graham, Tony & Wang, Jin, 2021. "An analysis of factors affecting the severity of marine accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    11. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Amita Singh, 2005. "Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 17-29, March.
    12. Atiq Siddiqui & Manish Verma, 2013. "An Expected Consequence Approach to Route Choice in the Maritime Transportation of Crude Oil," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(11), pages 2041-2055, November.
    13. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. René van Dorp & Thomas Mazzuchi & John R. Harrald & John E. Spahn & Martha Grabowski, 2002. "The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 25-40, December.
    14. Antão, P. & Sun, S. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Quantitative assessment of ship collision risk influencing factors from worldwide accident and fleet data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    15. Zhang, Weibin & Feng, Xinyu & Goerlandt, Floris & Liu, Qing, 2020. "Towards a Convolutional Neural Network model for classifying regional ship collision risk levels for waterway risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    16. Giel Wiel & J. Dorp, 2011. "An oil outflow model for tanker collisions and groundings," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 279-304, July.
    17. Jinfen Zhang & Ângelo P Teixeira & C. Guedes Soares & Xinping Yan & Kezhong Liu, 2016. "Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(6), pages 1171-1187, June.
    18. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2009. "Bayesian Simulation and Decision Analysis: An Expository Survey," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 222-238, December.
    19. Christopher S Decker & William Corcoran & David T Flynn, 2011. "Shipwrecks on the Great Lakes and the Lake Carriers Association," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 450-469.
    20. Bing Wu & Huibin Tian & Xinping Yan & C. Guedes Soares, 2020. "A probabilistic consequence estimation model for collision accidents in the downstream of Yangtze River using Bayesian Networks," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 422-436, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:187:y:2011:i:1:p:249-277:10.1007/s10479-009-0678-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.