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The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Jason R. W. Merrick

    (Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, PO Box 843083, 1001 West Main Street, Richmond, Virginia 23284)

  • J. René van Dorp

    (Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, George Washington University, 1776 G Street NW, Suite 110, Washington, DC 20052)

  • Thomas Mazzuchi

    (Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, George Washington University, 1776 G Street NW, Suite 110, Washington, DC 20052)

  • John R. Harrald

    (Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, George Washington University, 1776 G Street NW, Suite 110, Washington, DC 20052)

  • John E. Spahn

    (Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, George Washington University, 1776 G Street NW, Suite 110, Washington, DC 20052)

  • Martha Grabowski

    (Business Department, Le Moyne College, and Department of Decision Sciences and Engineering Systems, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 5555 Mount Pleasant Drive, Cazenovia, New York 13035)

Abstract

After the grounding of the Exxon Valdez and its subsequent oil spill, all parties with interests in Prince William Sound (PWS) were eager to prevent another major pollution event. While they implemented several measures to reduce the risk of an oil spill, the stakeholders disagreed about the effectiveness of these measures and the potential effectiveness of further proposed measures. They formed a steering committee to represent all the major stakeholders in the oil industry, in the government, in local industry, and among the local citizens. The steering committee hired a consultant team, which created a detailed model of the PWS system, integrating system simulation, data analysis, and expert judgment. The model was capable of assessing the current risk of accidents involving oil tankers operating in the PWS and of evaluating measures aimed at reducing this risk. The risk model showed that actions taken prior to the study had reduced the risk of oil spill by 75 percent, and it identified measures estimated to reduce the accident frequency by an additional 68 percent, including improving the safety-management systems of the oil companies and stationing an enhanced-capability tug, called the Gulf Service, at Hinchinbrook Entrance. In all, various stakeholders made multimillion dollar investments to reduce the risk of further oil spills based on the results of the risk assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason R. W. Merrick & J. René van Dorp & Thomas Mazzuchi & John R. Harrald & John E. Spahn & Martha Grabowski, 2002. "The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 25-40, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:orinte:v:32:y:2002:i:6:p:25-40
    DOI: 10.1287/inte.32.6.25.6474
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Giel Wiel & J. Dorp, 2011. "An oil outflow model for tanker collisions and groundings," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 279-304, July.
    2. Fatih Yaşar, 2007. "The Study Of Quenched Bond Randomness By Wang–Landau Algorithm," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(07), pages 1107-1117.
    3. Montewka, Jakub & Hinz, Tomasz & Kujala, Pentti & Matusiak, Jerzy, 2010. "Probability modelling of vessel collisions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(5), pages 573-589.
    4. Jason R. W. Merrick & John R. Harrald, 2007. "Making Decisions About Safety in US Ports and Waterways," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(3), pages 240-252, June.
    5. Suyi Li & Qiang Meng & Xiaobo Qu, 2012. "An Overview of Maritime Waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(3), pages 496-512, March.
    6. A. U. Qaisrani & K. M. Khan & M. Khalid, 2004. "Effect Of Eley–Rideal Process On The Phase Diagram Of A Monomer–Dimer Catalytic Reaction On (001) Surface And Subsurface Of A Simple Cubic Structure," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(09), pages 1215-1225.
    7. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Amita Singh, 2005. "Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 17-29, March.
    8. Zhang, Weibin & Feng, Xinyu & Goerlandt, Floris & Liu, Qing, 2020. "Towards a Convolutional Neural Network model for classifying regional ship collision risk levels for waterway risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    9. Haapasaari, Päivi & Helle, Inari & Lehikoinen, Annukka & Lappalainen, Jouni & Kuikka, Sakari, 2015. "A proactive approach for maritime safety policy making for the Gulf of Finland: Seeking best practices," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 107-118.
    10. Shan-Ho Tsai & Fugao Wang & D. P. Landau, 2009. "Two-Dimensional Wang–Landau Sampling Of An Asymmetric Ising Model," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(09), pages 1357-1366.
    11. J. Dorp & Jason Merrick, 2011. "On a risk management analysis of oil spill risk using maritime transportation system simulation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 249-277, July.
    12. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer & John C. Butler, 2016. "Modeling Correlated Discrete Uncertainties in Event Trees with Copulas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 396-410, February.
    13. Zhang, Yi & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2016. "Estimating economic losses of industry clusters due to port disruptions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 17-33.
    14. Jason R. W. Merrick & Claire A. Dorsey & Bo Wang & Martha Grabowski & John R. Harrald, 2022. "Measuring Prediction Accuracy in a Maritime Accident Warning System," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(2), pages 819-827, February.
    15. Jason R. W. Merrick & Martha Grabowski, 2014. "Decision Performance and Safety Performance: A Value-Focused Thinking Study in the Oil Industry," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 105-116, June.
    16. Özgecan S. Ulusçu & Birnur Özbaş & Tayfur Altıok & İlhan Or, 2009. "Risk Analysis of the Vessel Traffic in the Strait of Istanbul," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(10), pages 1454-1472, October.
    17. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene Van Dorp & Varun Dinesh, 2005. "Assessing Uncertainty in Simulation‐Based Maritime Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 731-743, June.
    18. Goerlandt, Floris & Montewka, Jakub, 2015. "Maritime transportation risk analysis: Review and analysis in light of some foundational issues," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 115-134.
    19. Jason R. W. Merrick & Rene Van Dorp, 2006. "Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 223-237, February.
    20. Norrington, Lisa & Quigley, John & Russell, Ashley & Van der Meer, Robert, 2008. "Modelling the reliability of search and rescue operations with Bayesian Belief Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(7), pages 940-949.
    21. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2009. "Bayesian Simulation and Decision Analysis: An Expository Survey," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 222-238, December.
    22. J Montewka & P Krata & F Goerlandt & A Mazaheri & P Kujala, 2011. "Marine traffic risk modelling – an innovative approach and a case study," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 225(3), pages 307-322, September.

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