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A Linear Model for Managing the Risk of Antimicrobial Resistance Originating in Food Animals

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  • Mary J. Bartholomew
  • David J. Vose
  • Linda R. Tollefson
  • Curtis C. Travis

Abstract

A linear population risk model used by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) estimates the risk of human cases of campylobacteriosis caused by fluoroquinolone‐resistant Campylobacter. Among the cases of campylobacteriosis attributed to domestically produced chicken, the fluoroquinolone resistance is assumed to result from the use of fluoroquinolones in poultry in the United States. Properties of the linear population risk model are contrasted with those of a farm‐to‐fork model commonly used for microbial risk assessments. The utility of the linear population model for the purpose for which it was used by CVM is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary J. Bartholomew & David J. Vose & Linda R. Tollefson & Curtis C. Travis, 2005. "A Linear Model for Managing the Risk of Antimicrobial Resistance Originating in Food Animals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 99-108, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:25:y:2005:i:1:p:99-108
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00570.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harris, N.V. & Weiss, N.S. & Nolan, C.M., 1986. "The role of poultry and meats in the etiology of Campylobacter jejuni/coli enteritis," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 76(4), pages 407-411.
    2. Peter F. M. Teunis & Nico J. D. Nagelkerke & Charles N. Haas, 1999. "Dose Response Models For Infectious Gastroenteritis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(6), pages 1251-1260, December.
    3. P. F. M. Teunis & A. H. Havelaar, 2000. "The Beta Poisson Dose‐Response Model Is Not a Single‐Hit Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(4), pages 513-520, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, 2005. "Some Limitations of a Proposed Linear Model for Antimicrobial Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1327-1332, December.
    2. H. Scott Hurd & Sasidhar Malladi, 2008. "A Stochastic Assessment of the Public Health Risks of the Use of Macrolide Antibiotics in Food Animals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 695-710, June.
    3. Kohei Makita & Eric M Fèvre & Charles Waiswa & Mark C Eisler & Susan C Welburn, 2010. "How Human Brucellosis Incidence in Urban Kampala Can Be Reduced Most Efficiently? A Stochastic Risk Assessment of Informally-Marketed Milk," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(12), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Michael S. Williams & Eric D. Ebel & David Vose, 2011. "Framework for Microbial Food‐Safety Risk Assessments Amenable to Bayesian Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 548-565, April.

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