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A Model of Exposure to Rotavirus from Nondietary Ingestion Iterated by Simulated Intermittent Contacts

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  • Timothy R. Julian
  • Robert A. Canales
  • James O. Leckie
  • Alexandria B. Boehm

Abstract

Existing microbial risk assessment models rarely incorporate detailed descriptions of human interaction with fomites. We develop a stochastic‐mechanistic model of exposure to rotavirus from nondietary ingestion iterated by simulated intermittent fomes‐mouth, hand‐mouth, and hand‐fomes contacts typical of a child under six years of age. This exposure is subsequently translated to risk using a simple static dose‐response relationship. Through laboratory experiments, we quantified the mean rate of inactivation for MS2 phage on glass (0.0052/hr) and mean transfer between fingertips and glass (36%). Simulations using these parameters demonstrated that a child's ingested dose from a rotavirus‐contaminated ball ranges from 2 to 1,000 virus over a period of one hour, with a median value of 42 virus. These results were heavily influenced by selected values of model parameters, most notably the concentration of rotavirus on fomes, frequency of fomes‐mouth contacts, frequency of hand‐mouth contacts, and virus transferred from fomes to mouth. The model demonstrated that mouthing of fomes is the primary exposure route, with hand mouthing contributions accounting for less than one‐fifth of the child's dose over the first 10 minutes of interaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy R. Julian & Robert A. Canales & James O. Leckie & Alexandria B. Boehm, 2009. "A Model of Exposure to Rotavirus from Nondietary Ingestion Iterated by Simulated Intermittent Contacts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(5), pages 617-632, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:29:y:2009:i:5:p:617-632
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01193.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rachael M. Jones, 2011. "Critical Review and Uncertainty Analysis of Factors Influencing Influenza Transmission," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(8), pages 1226-1242, August.
    2. S. Fiona Barker, 2014. "Risk of Norovirus Gastroenteritis from Consumption of Vegetables Irrigated with Highly Treated Municipal Wastewater—Evaluation of Methods to Estimate Sewage Quality," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(5), pages 803-817, May.
    3. Rachael M. Jones & Elodie Adida, 2011. "Influenza Infection Risk and Predominate Exposure Route: Uncertainty Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(10), pages 1622-1631, October.
    4. Amanda M. Wilson & Kelly A. Reynolds & Marc P. Verhougstraete & Robert A. Canales, 2019. "Validation of a Stochastic Discrete Event Model Predicting Virus Concentration on Nurse Hands," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1812-1824, August.

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