IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v28y2008i3p695-710.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Stochastic Assessment of the Public Health Risks of the Use of Macrolide Antibiotics in Food Animals

Author

Listed:
  • H. Scott Hurd
  • Sasidhar Malladi

Abstract

Campylobacteriosis is an important food‐borne illness with more than a million U.S. cases annually. Antibiotic treatment is usually not required. However, erythromycin, a macrolide antibiotic, is recommended for the treatment of severe cases. Therefore, it is considered a critically important antibiotic and given special attention as to the risk that food animal use will lead to resistant infections and compromised human treatment. To assess this risk, we used a retrospective approach; estimating the number of campylobacteriosis cases caused by specific meat consumption utilizing the preventable fraction. We then determined the number of cases with macrolide resistance Campylobacter spp. based on a linear model relating the resistance fraction to on‐farm macrolide use. In this article, we considered the uncertainties in the parameter estimates, utilized a more elaborate model of resistance development and separated C. coli and C. jejuni. There are no published data for the probability of compromised treatment outcome due to macrolide resistance. Therefore, our estimates of compromised treatment outcome were based on data for fluoroquinolone‐resistant infections. The conservative results show the human health risks are extremely low. For example, the predicted risk of suboptimal human treatment of infection with C. coli from swine is only 1 in 82 million; with a 95% chance it could be as high as 1 in 49 million. Risks from C. jejuni in poultry or beef are even less. Reduced antibiotic use can adversely impact animal health. These low human risks should be weighed against the alternative risks.

Suggested Citation

  • H. Scott Hurd & Sasidhar Malladi, 2008. "A Stochastic Assessment of the Public Health Risks of the Use of Macrolide Antibiotics in Food Animals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 695-710, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:3:p:695-710
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01054.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01054.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01054.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Louis A. Cox & Douglas A. Popken, 2004. "Quantifying Human Health Risks from Virginiamycin Used in Chickens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 271-288, February.
    2. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox & Edward Sanders, 2006. "Estimating Preventable Fractions of Disease Caused by a Specified Biological Mechanism: PAHs in Smoking Lung Cancers as an Example," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(4), pages 881-892, August.
    3. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, 2005. "Some Limitations of a Proposed Linear Model for Antimicrobial Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1327-1332, December.
    4. Mary J. Bartholomew & David J. Vose & Linda R. Tollefson & Curtis C. Travis, 2005. "A Linear Model for Managing the Risk of Antimicrobial Resistance Originating in Food Animals," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 99-108, February.
    5. Shore, R.E., 1995. "Epidemiologic data in risk assessment--imperfect but valuable," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 85(4), pages 474-476.
    6. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox & Douglas A. Popken, 2006. "Quantifying Potential Human Health Impacts of Animal Antibiotic Use: Enrofloxacin and Macrolides in Chickens," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 135-146, February.
    7. Hurd, H. Scott & Doores, Stephanie & Hayes, Dermot J. & Mathew, Alan & Maurer, John & Silley, Peter & Singer, Randall S. & Jones, Ronald N., 2004. "Public Health Consequences of Macrolide Use in Food Animals: A Deterministic Risk Assessment," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11282, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. מחקר - ביטוח לאומי, 2006. "Summary for 2005," Working Papers 29, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
    9. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox & Douglas A. Popken & Richard Carnevale, 2007. "Quantifying Human Health Risks from Animal Antimicrobials," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(1), pages 22-38, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox Jr & Douglas A. Popken, 2010. "Assessing Potential Human Health Hazards and Benefits from Subtherapeutic Antibiotics in the United States: Tetracyclines as a Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 432-457, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox Jr & Douglas A. Popken, 2010. "Assessing Potential Human Health Hazards and Benefits from Subtherapeutic Antibiotics in the United States: Tetracyclines as a Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 432-457, March.
    2. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr & Douglas A. Popken, 2008. "Overcoming Confirmation Bias in Causal Attribution: A Case Study of Antibiotic Resistance Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1155-1172, October.
    3. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox & Douglas A. Popken & Richard Carnevale, 2007. "Quantifying Human Health Risks from Animal Antimicrobials," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(1), pages 22-38, February.
    4. I. Forrester & J. C. Hanekamp1, 2006. "Precaution, Science and Jurisprudence: a Test Case," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 297-311, June.
    5. Productivity Commission, 2006. "Review of Price Regulation of Airports Services," Inquiry Reports, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia, number 40.
    6. MacCarty, Nordica A. & Bryden, Kenneth Mark, 2016. "An integrated systems model for energy services in rural developing communities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 536-557.
    7. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clarke, Damian & Mühlrad, Hanna & Palme, Mårten, 2021. "Health and Labor Market Impacts of Twin Birth : Evidence from a Swedish IVF Policy Mandate," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1391, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, 2005. "Some Limitations of a Proposed Linear Model for Antimicrobial Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1327-1332, December.
    9. N. N., 2005. "60th Euroconstruct Conference: The Prospects for the European Construction Market 2006-2008. Summary Report," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25838.
    10. Lei Jin & Nicholas Chrisatakis, 2009. "Investigating the mechanism of marital mortality reduction: The transition to widowhood and quality of health care," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(3), pages 605-625, August.
    11. Ankit Gupta & Hemant Bherwani & Sneha Gautam & Saima Anjum & Kavya Musugu & Narendra Kumar & Avneesh Anshul & Rakesh Kumar, 2021. "Air pollution aggravating COVID-19 lethality? Exploration in Asian cities using statistical models," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 6408-6417, April.
    12. Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, 2015. "The South African Sunflower Complex," BFAP Reports 279776, Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), BFAP Reports.
    13. Ellen Bouchery & Rebecca Morris & Jasmine Little, "undated". "Examining Substance Use Disorder Treatment Demand and Provider Capacity in a Changing Health Care System: Initial Findings Report," Mathematica Policy Research Reports b0d83ca544284ee7a053b2788, Mathematica Policy Research.
    14. Sun-Jin Yun, 2012. "Nuclear power for climate mitigation? Contesting frames in Korean newspapers," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 57-73, May.
    15. Hristovska, Tatjana & Watkins, K. Bradley & Anders, Merle M., 2012. "An Economic Risk Analysis of No-till Management for the Rice-Soybean Rotation System used in Arkansas," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119676, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "The Gambia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/325, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Nicholas W Calderone, 2012. "Insect Pollinated Crops, Insect Pollinators and US Agriculture: Trend Analysis of Aggregate Data for the Period 1992–2009," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(5), pages 1-27, May.
    18. Alexa Spence & Wouter Poortinga & Nick Pidgeon, 2012. "The Psychological Distance of Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(6), pages 957-972, June.
    19. Crouse, Dan L. & Ross, Nancy A. & Goldberg, Mark S., 2009. "Double burden of deprivation and high concentrations of ambient air pollution at the neighbourhood scale in Montreal, Canada," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 971-981, September.
    20. Watkins, K. Bradley & Hignight, Jeffrey A. & Anders, Merle M., 2011. "The Impacts of Farm Size and Economic Risk on No-Till Rice Whole-Farm Profitability," 2011 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2011, Corpus Christi, Texas 98733, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:3:p:695-710. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.