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Income risk inequality: Evidence from Spanish administrative records

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  • Manuel Arellano
  • Stéphane Bonhomme
  • Micole De Vera
  • Laura Hospido
  • Siqi Wei

Abstract

In this paper, we use administrative data from the social security to study income dynamics and income risk inequality in Spain between 2005 and 2018. We construct individual measures of income risk as functions of past employment history, income, and demographics. Focusing on males, we document that income risk is highly unequal in Spain: More than half of the economy has close to perfect predictability of their income, while some face considerable uncertainty. Income risk is inversely related to income and age, and income risk inequality increases markedly in the recession. These findings are robust to a variety of specifications, including using neural networks for prediction and allowing for individual unobserved heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme & Micole De Vera & Laura Hospido & Siqi Wei, 2022. "Income risk inequality: Evidence from Spanish administrative records," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1747-1801, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:quante:v:13:y:2022:i:4:p:1747-1801
    DOI: 10.3982/QE1887
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    Cited by:

    1. Giulia Bovini & Emanuele Ciani & Marta De Philippis & Stefania Romano, 2023. "Labour income inequality and in-work poverty: a comparison between euro area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 806, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Michele Lenza & Jiri Slacalek, 2024. "How does monetary policy affect income and wealth inequality? Evidence from quantitative easing in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 746-765, August.
    3. Moritz Drechsel‐Grau & Andreas Peichl & Kai D. Schmid & Johannes F. Schmieder & Hannes Walz & Stefanie Wolter, 2022. "Inequality and income dynamics in Germany," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1593-1635, November.
    4. Serrano-Serrat, Josep, 2022. "Occupation-Specific Skills, Labor Market Context and Preferences for Redistribution," SocArXiv rz9c6, Center for Open Science.
    5. Samuel Bentolila & Florentino Felgueroso & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2022. "Lost in recessions: youth employment and earnings in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-49, May.
    6. Søren Leth‐Petersen & Johan Sæverud, 2022. "Inequality and dynamics of earnings and disposable income in Denmark 1987–2016," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1493-1526, November.
    7. Stephane Bonhomme & Angela Denis, 2023. "Estimating Individual Responses when Tomorrow Matters," Papers 2310.09105, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    8. Fatih Guvenen & Luigi Pistaferri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Global trends in income inequality and income dynamics: New insights from GRID," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1321-1360, November.
    9. Silvia Sarpietro & Yuya Sasaki & Yulong Wang, 2022. "Non-Existent Moments of Earnings Growth," Papers 2203.08014, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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