IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/spmain/hal-03870685.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Heterogeneity in MPC Beyond Liquidity Constraints: The Role of Permanent Earnings

Author

Listed:
  • Jeanne Commault

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The distribution of MPCs is central in many economic questions but presents puzzling stylized facts. I show that standard consumption models generate a positive relation between people's permanent component of earnings and their MPC, because the MPC depends on liquid wealth but also on the variance of future earnings. This variance is higher at higher levels of permanent earnings. This relation can explain recent stylized facts. Survey data support a positive effect of permanent earnings on the MPC, of a magnitude comparable to that of wealth. Numerical simulations with realistic earnings risk replicate the survey results and stylized facts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeanne Commault, 2024. "Heterogeneity in MPC Beyond Liquidity Constraints: The Role of Permanent Earnings," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03870685, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03870685
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03870685v2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03870685v2/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher D. Carroll, 2004. "Theoretical Foundations of Buffer Stock Saving," Economics Working Paper Archive 517, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    2. Filip Rozsypal & Kathrin Schlafmann, 2023. "Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and Its Aggregate Implications," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 331-371, October.
    3. Greg Kaplan & Kurt Mitman & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3285-3345.
    4. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
    5. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne K. Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2021. "The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare," CESifo Working Paper Series 9326, CESifo.
    6. Attanasio, Orazio P, et al, 1999. "Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 22-35, January.
    7. Manuel Arellano & Richard Blundell & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 693-734, May.
    8. Gouveia, Miguel & Strauss, Robert P., 1994. "Effective Federal Individual Tax Functions: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 47(2), pages 317-339, June.
    9. Albanesi, Stefania & DeGiorgi, Giacomo & Nosal, Jaromir, 2022. "Credit growth and the financial crisis: A new narrative," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 118-139.
    10. Gouveia, Miguel & Strauss, Robert P., 1994. "Effective Federal Individual Tax Functions: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 47(2), pages 317-39, June.
    11. Giovanni L. Violante & Greg Kaplan, 2022. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 747-775, August.
    12. Luigi Pistaferri, 2001. "Superior Information, Income Shocks, And The Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 465-476, August.
    13. Bunn, Philip & Le Roux, Jeanne & Reinold, Kate & Surico, Paolo, 2018. "The consumption response to positive and negative income shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-15.
    14. Kanishka Misra & Paolo Surico, 2014. "Consumption, Income Changes, and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Two Fiscal Stimulus Programs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 84-106, October.
    15. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1199-1239, July.
    16. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "How Much Consumption Insurance beyond Self-Insurance?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 53-87, October.
    17. Gong, Liutang & Zhong, Ruquan & Zou, Heng-fu, 2012. "On the concavity of the consumption function with the time varying discount rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 99-101.
    18. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme & Micole De Vera & Laura Hospido & Siqi Wei, 2022. "Income risk inequality: Evidence from Spanish administrative records," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1747-1801, November.
    19. Scott R. Baker, 2018. "Debt and the Response to Household Income Shocks: Validation and Application of Linked Financial Account Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1504-1557.
    20. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    21. Carroll, Christopher D., 2009. "Precautionary saving and the marginal propensity to consume out of permanent income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 780-790, September.
    22. Peter Ganong & Damon Jones & Pascal J. Noel & Fiona E. Greig & Diana Farrell & Chris Wheat, 2020. "Wealth, Race, and Consumption Smoothing of Typical Income Shocks," NBER Working Papers 27552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Miles S. Kimball, 1990. "Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity to Consume," NBER Working Papers 3403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Toda, Alexis Akira, 2021. "Necessity of hyperbolic absolute risk aversion for the concavity of consumption functions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera & Serdar Ozkan, 2024. "Consumption Dynamics and Welfare Under Non-Gaussian Earnings Risk," Working Papers 2024-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 27 Jul 2024.
    2. Savoia, Ettore, 2023. "The effects of labor income risk heterogeneity on the marginal propensity to consume," Working Paper Series 2866, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2024. "Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 174-199, January.
    2. Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.
    3. Manuel Arellano & Richard Blundell & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 693-734, May.
    4. Edmund Crawley & Andreas Kuchler, 2020. "Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. J r my Boccanfuso, 2022. "Consumption Response Heterogeneity and Dynamics with an Inattention Region," Working Papers wp1172, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    6. Giovanni L. Violante & Greg Kaplan, 2022. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 747-775, August.
    7. Ghosh, Anisha & Theloudis, Alexandros, 2023. "Consumption Partial Insurance in the Presence of Tail Income Risk," Other publications TiSEM c8da0a17-57cb-40bf-ab61-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2271-2304.
    9. Alonso, Cristian, 2018. "Hard vs. soft financial constraints: Implications for the effects of a credit crunch," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 198-223.
    10. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    11. Crawley, Edmund & Theloudis, Alexandros, 2024. "Income Shocks and their Transmission into Consumption," Discussion Paper 2024-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Macnamara, Patrick & Pidkuyko, Myroslav & Rossi, Raffaele, 2024. "Marginal tax rates and income in the long run: Evidence from a structural estimation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Asger Lau Andersen & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2021. "Dynamic Spending Responses to Wealth Shocks: Evidence from Quasi-lotteries on the Stock Market," CEBI working paper series 21-11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    14. Jorge Miranda-Pino & Daniel Murphy & Kieran Walsh & Eric Young, 2020. "A Model of Expenditure Shocks," Working Papers 20-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    15. Bick, Alexander & Choi, Sekyu, 2011. "Life-cycle consumption: can single agent models get it right?," MPRA Paper 30910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Scott Ross Baker & Contantine Yannelis, 2017. "Income Changes and Consumption: Evidence from the 2013 Federal Government Shutdown," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 99-124, January.
    17. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Roberta Zizza, 2015. "Accessorizing. The effect of union contract renewals on consumption," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1024, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Savoia, Ettore, 2023. "The effects of labor income risk heterogeneity on the marginal propensity to consume," Working Paper Series 2866, European Central Bank.
    19. Choi, Kyoung Jin & Jeon, Junkee & Koo, Hyeng Keun, 2022. "Intertemporal preference with loss aversion: Consumption and risk-attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    20. Peter Ganong & Damon Jones & Pascal Noel & Diana Farrell & Fiona Greig & Chris Wheat, 2020. "Wealth, Race, and Consumption Smoothing of Typical Income Shocks," Working Papers 2020-49, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marginal Propensity to Consume; Earnings Risk; Precautionary Saving; Standard Incomplete Market Model;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03870685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Contact - Sciences Po Departement of Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.