IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/mgtdec/v42y2021i3p649-661.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there a nonlinear relationship between nonperforming loans and bank profitability? Evidence from dynamic panel threshold

Author

Listed:
  • Segun Thompson Bolarinwa
  • Richard Olaolu Olayeni
  • Xuan Vinh Vo

Abstract

This study examines the threshold effect in the nonperforming loans–profitability nexus within the Nigerian banking industry. Using the innovative dynamic panel threshold of Seo, Kim, and Kim (2019), the work documents threshold levels of 3.5% and 5.0% of nonperforming loans for return on average assets (ROAA) and return on average equity (ROAE), respectively. These levels of nonperforming loans ensure equilibrium profitability without stability trade‐off in the industry. Similarly, the robust models suggest the threshold of 5.2% and 2.81% of impaired loans for optimal ROAA and ROAE, respectively. The results are important for policy formulations. It is recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) should review the 5% threshold nonperforming loans adopted in the industry in 2019 prudential guidelines to ensure stability in the Nigerian banking industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Richard Olaolu Olayeni & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Is there a nonlinear relationship between nonperforming loans and bank profitability? Evidence from dynamic panel threshold," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 649-661, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:42:y:2021:i:3:p:649-661
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.3262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.3262
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/mde.3262?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2014. "What are the Key Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in CESEE?," Working Papers IES 2014/26, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2014.
    2. Jacob A. Bikker & Haixia Hu, 2002. "Cyclical patterns in profits, provisioning and lending of banks and procyclicality of the new Basel capital requirements," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 143-175.
    3. Chadwick, Meltem Gulenay & Ozturk, Huseyin, 2019. "Measuring financial systemic stress for Turkey: A search for the best composite indicator," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 151-172.
    4. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    5. Ismail Adelopo & Robert Lloydking & Venancio Tauringana, 2018. "Determinants of bank profitability before, during, and after the financial crisis," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 378-398, March.
    6. Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2013. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 48-66.
    7. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    8. Narman Kuzucu & Serpil Kuzucu, 2019. "What Drives Non-Performing Loans? Evidence from Emerging and Advanced Economies during Pre- and Post-Global Financial Crisis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(8), pages 1694-1708, June.
    9. Pessarossi, Pierre & Thevenon, Jean-Luc & Weill, Laurent, 2020. "Does high profitability improve stability for European banks?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Laivi Laidroo & Kadri Männasoo, 2014. "Perils of excessive credit growth: evidence from 11 new EU member states," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 14(1-2), pages 17-34.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ibish Mazreku & Fisnik Morina & Valdrin Misiri & Jonathan V. Spiteri & Simon Grima, 2018. "Determinants of the Level of Non-Performing Loans in Commercial Banks of Transition Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 3-13.
    13. Atoi, Ngozi Victor, 2018. "Non-performing Loan and its Effects on Banking Stability: Evidence from National and International Licensed Banks in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chau Le & Aleksandar Šević & Panayiotis G. Tzeremes & Trong Ngo, 2022. "Bank efficiency in Vietnam: Do scale expansion strategies and non‐performing loans matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 822-843, January.
    15. Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia & João Pedro Silva Martins Guerreiro, 2016. "Internal and external determinants of banks’ profitability: The Portuguese case," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 90-107, January.
    16. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2014. "The nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth: New global evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 474-483.
    17. Ioan TRENCA & Annamaria BENYOVSZKI, 2008. "Credit risk, a macroeconomic model application for Romania," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(7), pages 118-126, May.
    18. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Abiodun Adewale Adegboye, 2020. "Re-examining the determinants of capital structure in Nigeria," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 26-60, July.
    19. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    20. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    21. Chih-Ching Yang, 2017. "Reduction of non-performing loans in the banking industry: an application of data envelopment analysis," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 833-851, September.
    22. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & Olayemi O. Simon-Oke & Olufemi Bodunde Obembe & Segun Thompson Bolarinwa, 2017. "Re-examining Firm Size-profitability Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Non-financial Listed Firms in Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 543-558, June.
    23. Myung Hwan Seo & Sueyoul Kim & Young-Joo Kim, 2019. "Estimation of dynamic panel threshold model using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 19(3), pages 685-697, September.
    24. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Olufemi Bodunde Obembe & Clement Olaniyi, 2019. "Re-examining the determinants of bank profitability in Nigeria," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(3), pages 633-651, August.
    25. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    26. Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury & Mohamed Eskandar Shah Mohd Rasid, 2015. "The determinants of the profitability of Islamic banks: a cross-sectional study from Asia and Africa," International Journal of Business and Globalisation, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(3), pages 375-388.
    27. Campmas, Alexandra, 2020. "How do European banks portray the effect of policy interest rates and prudential behavior on profitability?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    28. MEMDANI Laila, 2017. "Macroeconomic And Bank Specific Determinants Of Non-Performing Loans (Npls) In The Indian Banking Sector," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 125-135, August.
    29. Rosenkranz, Peter & Lee, Junkyu, 2019. "Nonperforming Loans in Asia: Determinants and Macrofinancial Linkages," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 574, Asian Development Bank.
    30. Short, Brock K., 1979. "The relation between commercial bank profit rates and banking concentration in Canada, Western Europe, and Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 209-219, September.
    31. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    32. Alandejani, Maha & Asutay, Mehmet, 2017. "Nonperforming loans in the GCC banking sectors: Does the Islamic finance matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 832-854.
    33. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2016. "Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 169-186.
    35. Pestova Anna & Mamonov Mikhail, 2013. "Macroeconomic and bank?specific determinants of credit risk: evidence from Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 13/10e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    36. Hidalgo, Javier & Lee, Jungyoon & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2019. "Robust inference for threshold regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(2), pages 291-309.
    37. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 2013/072, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/161, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah & George Marbuah & Dinah Ani-Asamoah Marbuah, 2017. "Re-examining the Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Ghana’s Banking Industry: Role of the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 357-379, July.
    40. Civcir, İrfan & Ertac Varoglu, Dizem, 2019. "International transmission of monetary and global commodity price shocks to Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 647-665.
    41. Vera-Gilces, Paul & Camino-Mogro, Segundo & Ordeñana-Rodríguez, Xavier & Cornejo-Marcos, Gino, 2020. "A look inside banking profitability: Evidence from a dollarized emerging country," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 147-166.
    42. Florian Manz, 2019. "Determinants of non-performing loans: What do we know? A systematic review and avenues for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 351-389, November.
    43. Bakoush, Mohamed & Abouarab, Rabab & Wolfe, Simon, 2019. "Disentangling the impact of securitization on bank profitability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 519-537.
    44. Darren Pain, 2003. "The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation," Bank of England working papers 177, Bank of England.
    45. Bruce E. Hansen, 2017. "Regression Kink With an Unknown Threshold," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 228-240, April.
    46. Yanikkaya, Halit & Gumus, Nihat & Pabuccu, Yasar Ugur, 2018. "How profitability differs between conventional and Islamic banks: A dynamic panel data approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-111.
    47. Dietrich, Andreas & Wanzenried, Gabrielle, 2011. "Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 307-327, July.
    48. Chang, Hsin-Chen & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin Wei, 2011. "Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2416-2423.
    49. Grigori Fainstein & Igor Novikov, 2011. "The Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Determinants In the Banking Sector of the Baltic States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 20-45, June.
    50. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    51. Martins, António Miguel & Serra, Ana Paula & Stevenson, Simon, 2019. "Determinants of real estate bank profitability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 282-300.
    52. Nimesh Salike & Biao Ao, 2017. "Determinants of bank’s profitability: role of poor asset quality in Asia," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(2), pages 216-231, December.
    53. Vuslat Us, 2018. "The Determinants of Nonperforming Loans Before and After the Crisis: Challenges and Policy Implications for Turkish Banks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(7), pages 1608-1622, May.
    54. Căpraru Bogdan & Ihnatov Iulian, 2015. "Determinants Of Bank’s Profitability In EU15," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 62(1), pages 93-101, April.
    55. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    56. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
    57. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    58. Markus Arpa & Irene Giulini & Andreas Ittner & Franz Pauer, 2001. "The influence of macroeconomic developments on Austrian banks: implications for banking supervision," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 91-116, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Olawale Akinyele & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Determinants of nonperforming loans after recapitalization in the Nigerian banking industry: Does efficiency matter?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1509-1524, September.
    2. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & Ademola Obafemi Young & Xuan Vinh Vo & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al‐Faryan, 2022. "Do institutional framework and its threshold matter in the sensitivity of CEO pay to firm performance? Fresh insights from an emerging market economy," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 3386-3403, December.
    3. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Anthony Enisan Akinlo, 2022. "Determinants of nonperforming loans after recapitalization in the Nigerian banking industry: Does competition matter?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 309-323, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Olawale Akinyele & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Determinants of nonperforming loans after recapitalization in the Nigerian banking industry: Does efficiency matter?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1509-1524, September.
    2. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    3. Rahbar , Farhad & Behzadi Soufiani , Mohsen, 2021. "The Impact of Macroeconomic and Banking Variables on Non-Performing Loans in Oil Cycles: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 135-164, June.
    4. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    5. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    6. Cortés, David & Soriano, Pilar, 2024. "Analysis of macroeconomic determinants of non-performance in consumer and mortgage loans," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Gulati, Rachita & Goswami, Anju & Kumar, Sunil, 2019. "What drives credit risk in the Indian banking industry? An empirical investigation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 42-62.
    8. Maryem Naili & Younes Lahrichi, 2022. "The determinants of banks' credit risk: Review of the literature and future research agenda," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 334-360, January.
    9. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2021. "Determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110741, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Željko Jović, 2017. "Determinants Of Credit Risk – The Case Of Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(212), pages 155-188, January -.
    11. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & Olayemi O. Simon-Oke & Olufemi Bodunde Obembe & Segun Thompson Bolarinwa, 2017. "Re-examining Firm Size-profitability Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Non-financial Listed Firms in Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(3), pages 543-558, June.
    12. Vuslat Us, 2016. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in the Turkish Banking Sector : What Has Changed After the Global Crisis?," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1627, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    13. Saom Shawleen Anita & Nishat Tasnova & Nousheen Nawar, 2022. "Are non-performing loans sensitive to macroeconomic determinants? an empirical evidence from banking sector of SAARC countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Louhichi, Awatef & Boujelbene, Younes, 2016. "Credit risk, managerial behaviour and macroeconomic equilibrium within dual banking systems: Interest-free vs. interest-based banking industries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 104-121.
    15. Imad Jabbouri & Maryem Naili, 2020. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the MENA Region," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-33, February.
    16. Florian Manz, 2019. "Determinants of non-performing loans: What do we know? A systematic review and avenues for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 351-389, November.
    17. Ahlem Selma Messai & Fathi Jouini, 2013. "Micro and Macro Determinants of Non-performing Loan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 852-860.
    18. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Olufemi Bodunde Obembe, 2017. "Concentration–Profitability Nexus: New Approach from Causality," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 5(1), pages 84-98, June.
    19. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    20. Us, Vuslat, 2017. "Dynamics of non-performing loans in the Turkish banking sector by an ownership breakdown: The impact of the global crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-117.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:42:y:2021:i:3:p:649-661. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/7976 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.