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Nonperforming Loans in Asia: Determinants and Macrofinancial Linkages

Author

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  • Rosenkranz, Peter

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Lee, Junkyu

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

The recent rise of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in some Asian economies calls for close analysis of the determinants, the potential macrofinancial feedback effects, and the implications for financial stability in the region. Using a dynamic panel model, we assess the determinants of the evolution of bankspecific NPLs in Asia and find that macroeconomic conditions and bank-specific factors—such as rapid credit growth and excessive bank lending—contribute to the buildup of NPLs. Further, a panel vector autoregression analysis of macrofinancial implications of NPLs in emerging Asia offers significant evidence for the feedback effects of NPLs on the real economy and financial variables. Impulse response functions demonstrate that a rising NPL ratio decreases gross domestic product growth and credit supply and increases unemployment rate. Our findings underline the importance of considering policy options to swiftly and effectively manage and respond to a buildup of NPLs. The national and regional mechanisms underlying NPL resolution are important for safeguarding financial stability in an increasingly interconnected global financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosenkranz, Peter & Lee, Junkyu, 2019. "Nonperforming Loans in Asia: Determinants and Macrofinancial Linkages," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 574, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2012. "The “Big C”: identifying and mitigating contagion," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 23-87.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karan Singh Khati & Deep Mukherjee, 2021. "Productive Efficiency and Non-performing Assets of Indian Banks in the Post-global Financial Crisis Period," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 22(2), pages 186-204, September.
    2. Ana Kristel Lapid & Rogelio Mercado & Peter Rosenkranz, 2023. "Concentration in Asia's cross‐border banking: Determinants and impacts," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 267-292, May.
    3. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Richard Olaolu Olayeni & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Is there a nonlinear relationship between nonperforming loans and bank profitability? Evidence from dynamic panel threshold," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 649-661, April.
    4. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Olawale Akinyele & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Determinants of nonperforming loans after recapitalization in the Nigerian banking industry: Does efficiency matter?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1509-1524, September.
    5. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Anthony Enisan Akinlo, 2022. "Determinants of nonperforming loans after recapitalization in the Nigerian banking industry: Does competition matter?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 309-323, September.
    6. Zhenni Yang & Christopher Gan & Zhaohua Li, 2019. "Role of Bank Regulation on Bank Performance: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Commercial Banks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-25, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic panel model; emerging Asia; financial stability; macrofinancial feedback effects; nonperforming loans; panel vector autoregression model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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