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The Influence Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Credit Risk: Case Of Romanian Banking System

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  • Iulia Andreea Bucur
  • Simona Elena Dragomirescu

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the interactions between macroeconomic conditions, such as: real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, market interest rate, broad money supply, foreign exchange rate fluctuation and unemployment rate, and credit risk in Romanian banking sector during 2008-2013. The interrelations of indicators’ complexity imply a multidimensional statistical analysis in order to find a relation between the macroeconomic conditions and the credit risk. Our regression analysis findings confirm the hypothesis according to which the money supply growth rate and the market foreign exchange rate are negatively related with credit risk and the unemployment rate is positively related with it. Furthermore, our findings revealed that the credit risk is significantly and negatively affected by the exchange rate fluctuation and significantly and positively affected by the unemployment rate. The results do not indicate a significant relationship between credit risk and real GDP growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Iulia Andreea Bucur & Simona Elena Dragomirescu, 2014. "The Influence Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Credit Risk: Case Of Romanian Banking System," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 19.
    • Handle: RePEc:bac:fsecub:14-19-10
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    Cited by:

    1. Katuka, Blessing, 2017. "Credit risk dynamics in listed local banks in Zimbabwe (2009-2013)," MPRA Paper 92687, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    2. Natalia Nehrebecka, 2023. "Distribution of credit-risk concentration in particular sectors of the economy, and economic capital before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 129-158, February.
    3. Mahmoud Abdelaziz Touny & Mohamed Abdelhameed Shehab, 2015. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: An Empirical Study of Some Arab Countries," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 7(1), pages 11-22, May.
    4. Koju Laxmi & Abbas Ghulam & Wang Shouyang, 2018. "Do Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Vary with the Income Levels of Countries?," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(6), pages 512-531, December.
    5. Katuka, Blessing & Dzingirai, Canicio, 2015. "Micro and Macro Drivers of Credit Risk: The Case of Zimbabwean Banking Industry (2009-2013)," MPRA Paper 92688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; non-performing loans; Romanian banking system; macroeconomic determinants;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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