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What are the Key Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in CESEE?

Author

Listed:
  • Petr Jakubík

    (European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA), Institute of Economic Studies of Charles University in Prague and the Czech National Bank (on leave))

  • Thomas Reininger

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Foreign Research Division)

Abstract

Credit risk assessment is a crucial part of macroprudential analysis, with the aggregate nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio serving as a proxy for the economy-wide probability of default of the banking sector’s overall loan exposure. Therefore, the factors driving the NPL ratio deserve a lot of interest. This study provides a macroeconomic model for nonperforming loans (NPLs) for the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. It is based on panel data for Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Ukraine. In line with current literature, our empirical analysis confirms that economic growth is the main driver that is negatively correlated with NPL development. This inverse relation is also indicated by the stock index as a leading indicator for economic developments. However, there are also other important determinants that can help explain the change in NPL ratios in the CESEE countries: past credit growth as well as exchange rate changes coupled with the share of foreign currency loans in total loans. This study confirms and quantifies risk of excessive credit growth as well as foreign exchange lending.

Suggested Citation

  • Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2014. "What are the Key Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in CESEE?," Working Papers IES 2014/26, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2014_26
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    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/sci/publication/show/id/5195/lang/cs
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tatarici Luminita Roxana & Kubinschi Matei Nicolae & Barnea Dinu, 2020. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans for the EEC Region. A Financial Stability Perspective," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 15(4), pages 621-642, December.
    2. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Richard Olaolu Olayeni & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Is there a nonlinear relationship between nonperforming loans and bank profitability? Evidence from dynamic panel threshold," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 649-661, April.
    3. Grigoli, Francesco & Mansilla, Mario & Saldías, Martín, 2018. "Macro-financial linkages and heterogeneous non-performing loans projections: An application to Ecuador," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 130-141.
    4. Karadima, Maria & Louri, Helen, 2021. "Determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: the intricate role of fiscal expansion," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110741, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Ghosh, Saibal, 2019. "Loan delinquency in banking systems: How effective are credit reporting systems?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 220-236.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nonperforming loans; credit risk; financial stability; macroprudential framework; Central; Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE); emerging Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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