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Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: Modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice
[Non-performing loans and the macroeconomy: Modeling the systemic credit risk in Czech Republic]

Author

Listed:
  • Melecky, Ales
  • Melecky, Martin
  • Sulganova, Monika

Abstract

Agregátní úvěry v selhání jsou úvěry bankovního sektoru se zpožděnými splátkami. Tento článek zkoumá, jak agregátní úvěry v selhání, jakožto indikátor agregátního kreditního rizika, reagují na makroekonomický vývoj v České republice v letech 1993-2014. Naše studie využívá metodu bayesovského odhadu instrumentálních proměnných. Tato metoda používá apriorní informace získané z mezinárodních empirických studií a zohledňuje případnou endogenitu makroekonomického vývoje vzhledem k úvěrům v selhání. Získané výsledky ukazují, že úvěry v selhání vykazují silnou persistenci, že vliv ekonomického růstu a důchodového efektu měnového kurzu na finanční kondici dlužníků je signifikantně pozitivní a robustní, a že efekt výpůjčních sazeb je významně negativní a robustní. Efekt inflace a nezaměstnanosti je významný, avšak ne tak robustní, jak naznačuje zkušenost jiných zemí. Bilanční efekt měnového kurzu je pozitivní, ale jeho významnost se mění spolu se specifikací modelu. Z pohledu tvůrců hospodářské politiky se jeví včasné využití reálné depreciace koruny v případě narůstajícího kreditního rizika jako účinné opatření pro stabilizaci solventnosti bankovního sektoru.

Suggested Citation

  • Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin & Sulganova, Monika, 2014. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: Modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-performing loans and the macroeconomy: Modeling the systemic credit risk in Czech Republic]," MPRA Paper 59917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59917
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    systémové kreditní riziko; český bankovní systém; úvěry v selhání; bayesovský odhad instrumentálních proměnných; apriorní informace.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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