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Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending

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Abstract

This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018–19 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across their customer firms. This result is consistent with banks responding to uncertainty with wait-and-see behaviors, where more exposed banks curtail risky exposures, reduce loan maturities, and adjust loan supply along both intensive and extensive margins. The lending contraction is larger for more capital-constrained banks and has significant real effects, especially for bank-dependent firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2024. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:99199
    DOI: 10.29338/wp2024-16
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    Keywords

    uncertainty; bank loans; trade finance; credit supply; trade war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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