IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v57y2019i1d10.1007_s00181-018-1431-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Jump tail risk premium and predicting US and Japanese credit spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Masato Ubukata

    (Kushiro Public University of Economics
    Meiji Gakuin University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of time-varying jump tail risk component of market variance risk premium for predicting credit spreads in US and Japanese corporate bond markets. Based on a semi-nonparametric estimation procedure from option prices, we find that the implied left jump variation, which is a simple proxy of the special compensation for jump tail risks, could strongly predict lower-rated credit spreads and default spreads in Japan, even with control for traditional predictors and lagged credit spreads. The predictive pattern on forecasting horizons ranging from 1 month to 1 year differs from that of the diffusive component of variance risk premium, and thus, the variance risk premium decomposition increases the forecasting power of standard predictability regressions. Unlike in Japan, the jump tail risk component might be a weaker predictor for US credit spreads data used in this paper because it becomes insignificant after controlling volatility measures and lagged credit spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Masato Ubukata, 2019. "Jump tail risk premium and predicting US and Japanese credit spreads," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 79-104, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:57:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1431-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1431-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-018-1431-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-018-1431-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Britten‐Jones & Anthony Neuberger, 2000. "Option Prices, Implied Price Processes, and Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 839-866, April.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor & Xu, Lai, 2015. "Tail risk premia and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 113-134.
    3. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Marrone, James & Xu, Lai & Zhou, Hao, 2014. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia: Statistical Inference and International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 633-661, June.
    5. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Tails, Fears, and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 2165-2211, December.
    6. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    7. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    8. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    9. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    10. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    11. Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2014. "Market variance risk premiums in Japan for asset predictability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 169-198, August.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    13. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    14. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    15. Itamar Drechsler & Amir Yaron, 2011. "What's Vol Got to Do with It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 1-45.
    16. George J. Jiang & Yisong S. Tian, 2005. "The Model-Free Implied Volatility and Its Information Content," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1305-1342.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor, 2014. "Time-varying jump tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 168-180.
    18. Wang, Hao & Zhou, Hao & Zhou, Yi, 2013. "Credit default swap spreads and variance risk premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3733-3746.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Weilun & Gao, Jiti & Harris, David & Kew, Hsein, 2024. "Semi-parametric single-index predictive regression models with cointegrated regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    2. Masato Ubukata, 2022. "A time-varying jump tail risk measure using high-frequency options data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2633-2653, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andersen, Torben G. & Todorov, Viktor & Ubukata, Masato, 2021. "Tail risk and return predictability for the Japanese equity market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 344-363.
    2. Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2014. "Market variance risk premiums in Japan for asset predictability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 169-198, August.
    3. Li, Zhenxiong & Yao, Xingzhi & Izzeldin, Marwan, 2023. "On the right jump tail inferred from the VIX market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars & Violante, Francesco, 2020. "Dynamics of variance risk premia: A new model for disentangling the price of risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 312-334.
    5. Masato Ubukata, 2022. "A time-varying jump tail risk measure using high-frequency options data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2633-2653, November.
    6. Oikonomou, Ioannis & Stancu, Andrei & Symeonidis, Lazaros & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2019. "The information content of short-term options," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    7. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Lars Stentoft & Francesco Violante, 2017. "Dynamics of Variance Risk Premia, Investors' Sentiment and Return Predictability," CREATES Research Papers 2017-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Toshiaki Ogawa & Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2020. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia around the ZLB," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    9. Wang, Hao & Zhou, Hao & Zhou, Yi, 2013. "Credit default swap spreads and variance risk premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3733-3746.
    10. Hollstein, Fabian & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2020. "Variance risk: A bird’s eye view," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 517-535.
    11. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    12. Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Stentoft, Lars & Violante, Francesco, 2020. "Variance swap payoffs, risk premia and extreme market conditions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 106-124.
    13. Qiao, Fang & Xu, Lai & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhou, Hao, 2024. "Variance risk premiums in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    14. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.
    15. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    16. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Zhou, 2019. "Short-Run Bond Risk Premia," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-34, September.
    17. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2023. "The Variance Risk Premium in Equilibrium Models," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 1977-2014.
    18. Sévi, Benoît, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the downside risk-return trade-off at daily frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 189-197.
    19. Daniel O. Beltran & Deepa Dhume Datta & Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Matteo Iacoviello & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Canlin Li & Juan M. Londono & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Taxonomy of Global Risk, Uncertainty, and Volatility Measures," International Finance Discussion Papers 1216, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Dierkes, Maik & Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Würsig, Christoph Matthias, 2024. "Measuring tail risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Jump tail risks; Variance risk premium; Credit spreads; Predictability; Option prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:57:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1431-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.