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A bank lending channel or a credit supply shock?

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  • Milcheva, Stanimira

Abstract

Shifts in credit supply could have a bearing on house prices e.g. through financial innovations and changes in regulation independently of the existence of a bank lending channel of monetary policy. This paper assesses the responses of US house prices to an exogenous credit supply shock and compares them with the effects from variations in credit supply associated with a bank lending channel. The contribution of the study is twofold. First, innovations in credit supply are identified using a mortgage mix variable, thereby accounting for the market-based financial intermediaries. As a robustness check a survey variable of bank lending standards for mortgage loans is also used. Second, the policy-induced credit supply effect on house prices is disentangled and compared with the effect from an exogenous credit supply shock. It is shown that in the first 3years credit supply shocks affect house prices exogenously rather than through the bank lending channel. Monetary policy has still a large impact on house prices, even when the bank lending channel is ‘turned off’.

Suggested Citation

  • Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "A bank lending channel or a credit supply shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 314-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:37:y:2013:i:c:p:314-332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.03.004
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    3. Gregor Bäurle & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1939-1966, June.
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    10. Martin Hoesli & Stanimira Milcheva & Alex Moss, 2020. "Is Financial Regulation Good or Bad for Real Estate Companies? – An Event Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 369-407, October.
    11. MD Gyasuddin Ansari & Rudra Sensarma, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Liquidity Shock and Bank lending: The Case of Currency Demonetization in India," Working papers 575, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
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    13. Sanfilippo-Azofra, Sergio & Torre-Olmo, Begoña & Cantero-Saiz, María & López-Gutiérrez, Carlos, 2018. "Financial development and the bank lending channel in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 215-234.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C32; E52; F41; Bank lending channel; Monetary policy transmission mechanism; Credit supply; House prices; Mortgage mix; Lending standards;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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