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Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation

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  • Francesco Bianchi
  • Martin Lettau
  • Sydney C. Ludvigson

Abstract

We document large, longer-term, joint regime shifts in asset valuations and the real federal funds rate-r* spread. To interpret these findings, we estimate a novel macro-finance model of monetary transmission and find that the documented regimes coincide with shifts in the parameters of a policy rule, with long-term consequences for the real interest rate. Estimates imply that two-thirds of the decline in the real interest rate since the early 1980s is attributable to regime changes in monetary policy. The model explains how infrequent changes in the monetary policy stance can generate persistent changes in asset valuations and the equity premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," NBER Working Papers 22572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22572
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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