IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12671.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation

Author

Listed:
  • Lettau, Martin
  • Ludvigson, Sydney
  • Bianchi, Francesco

Abstract

We find evidence of infrequent shifts, or "regimes" in the mean of the asset valuation variable cayt that are strongly associated with low-frequency fluctuations in the real federal funds rate, with low policy rates associated with high asset valuations, and vice versa. There is no evidence that infrequent shifts to high asset valuations are associated with higher expected economic growth or lower economic uncertainty; indeed, the opposite is true. Additional evidence shows that regimes of low interest rates and high asset valuations are characterized by lower equity market risk premia and monetary policy that is less responsive to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney & Bianchi, Francesco, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12671
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP12671
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
    3. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "The Value Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 609-641, April.
    4. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2018. "A Model of Monetary Policy and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 317-373, February.
    5. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    7. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Modeling The Evolution Of Expectations And Uncertainty In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(2), pages 717-756, May.
    8. Han, Hsiang-Ling & Ogaki, Masao, 1997. "Consumption, income and cointegration," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 107-117.
    9. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer‐Gohde, 2022. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 477-499, April.
    10. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    11. Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2022. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2269-2315, July.
    12. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 38-94.
    13. George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo & Karthik A. Sastry, 2021. "Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 1-86.
    14. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2014. "Shocks and Crashes," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 293-354.
    15. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    16. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "The Safety Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 223-274.
    17. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    18. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Jessica A. Wachter, 2008. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1653-1687, July.
    19. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    20. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    22. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    23. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    24. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    25. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2005. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 583-626, June.
    26. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    27. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
    28. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    29. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2012. "Illiquid Banks, Financial Stability, and Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(3), pages 552-591.
    31. Saki Bigio, 2015. "Endogenous Liquidity and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1883-1927, June.
    32. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    33. Simon Gilchrist & David López-Salido & Egon Zakrajšek, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-109, January.
    34. Martin Schneider & Monika Piazzesi, 2015. "Payments, Credit and Asset Prices," 2015 Meeting Papers 133, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    35. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    36. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    37. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    38. Luis Viceira & Carolin Pflueger & John Campbell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," 2014 Meeting Papers 137, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    39. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(5), pages 979-1016, September.
    40. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    41. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    42. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    43. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    44. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2017. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 824-857, March.
    45. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533, September.
    46. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    47. Daniel L. Greenwald & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2019. "How the Wealth Was Won: Factor Shares as Market Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 25769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Acharya, Viral & Naqvi, Hassan, 2019. "On reaching for yield and the coexistence of bubbles and negative bubbles," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-10.
    49. Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Redistribution, and Risk Premia," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2249-2282, September.
    50. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2016. "Modeling The Evolution Of Expectations And Uncertainty In General Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 717-756, May.
    51. Ogaki, Masao & Park, Joon Y., 1997. "A cointegration approach to estimating preference parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 107-134.
    52. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2016. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, with Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 507-532, April.
    53. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    54. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    55. Nuno Coimbra & Hélène Rey, 2024. "Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 817-857.
    56. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    57. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    58. JULES H. Van BINSBERGEN & RALPH S. J. KOIJEN, 2010. "Predictive Regressions: A Present‐Value Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1439-1471, August.
    59. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
    60. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    61. Jaewon Choi & Mathias Kronlund, 2018. "Reaching for Yield in Corporate Bond Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1930-1965.
    62. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:609-642 is not listed on IDEAS
    63. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    64. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    65. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    66. Pablo Kurlat, 2013. "Lemons Markets and the Transmission of Aggregate Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1463-1489, June.
    67. Park, J.Y. & Ogaki, M., 1991. "Inference in Cointegrated Models Using VAR Prewhitening to Estimate Shortrun Dynamics," RCER Working Papers 281, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    68. Anna Cieslak & Adair Morse & Annette Vissing‐Jorgensen, 2019. "Stock Returns over the FOMC Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2201-2248, October.
    69. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    70. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
    71. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    72. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pflueger, Carolin & Rinaldi, Gianluca, 2022. "Why does the Fed move markets so much? A model of monetary policy and time-varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 71-89.
    2. Neuhierl, Andreas & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy communication, policy slope, and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 140-155.
    3. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    4. Alex Hsu & Francisco Palomino & Liang Qian, 2023. "Gone with the Vol: A Decline in Asset Return Predictability During the Great Moderation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 3025-3047, May.
    5. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    6. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ozdagli, Ali & Velikov, Mihail, 2020. "Show me the money: The monetary policy risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 320-339.
    8. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Cieslak, Anna & Pang, Hao, 2021. "Common shocks in stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 880-904.
    10. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    11. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2018. "Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 187-202, March.
    12. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    13. Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Qazi Haque, 2024. "Revisiting the Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(329), pages 234-259, June.
    14. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
    15. Carboni, Giacomo, 2014. "Term premia implications of macroeconomic regime changes," Working Paper Series 1694, European Central Bank.
    16. Martin Kliem & Alexander Meyer‐Gohde, 2022. "(Un)expected monetary policy shocks and term premia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 477-499, April.
    17. Andreas Neuhierl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 22831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
    19. Kurt G. Lunsford, 2020. "Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2899-2934, September.
    20. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, October –.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.