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The response of Australian consumption to housing wealth

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  • Fisher, Lance A.
  • Otto, Glenn
  • Voss, Graham M.

Abstract

Large variations in house prices can lead to significant changes in the level of household wealth and this may affect household consumption. Using Lettau and Ludvigson's [Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S.C., 2004. Understanding trend and cycle in asset values: reevaluating the wealth effect on consumption. American Economic Review 94, 276-299] cointegration approach, we investigate the response of non-housing consumption to permanent and transitory changes in financial and non-financial (housing) wealth in Australia since the mid-1970s. The data provide evidence that housing wealth contains a large transitory component, but up to 2004 at least, these transitory changes in wealth are not associated with any significant response in consumption. When post-2004 data are included in the estimation, there is some evidence that household consumption responds to recent transitory rises in wealth and labor income. However this finding needs to be weighed against weaker evidence of a cointegrating relationship for consumption, income and wealth.

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  • Fisher, Lance A. & Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M., 2010. "The response of Australian consumption to housing wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 284-299, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:32:y:2010:i:1:p:284-299
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    2. Christian Gillitzer & Jin Cong Wang, 2015. "Housing Wealth Effects: Cross-sectional Evidence from New Vehicle Registrations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Adams, Zeno & Blickle, Kristian, 2016. "Immigration, Real Estate Prices and the Consumption Decisions of Native Households," Working Papers on Finance 1615, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2016. "Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 562-578.
    5. Shuping Shi & Abbas Valadkhani & Russell Smyth & Farshid Vahid, 2016. "Dating the Timeline of House Price Bubbles in Australian Capital Cities," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(299), pages 590-605, December.
    6. De Veirman Emmanuel & Dunstan Ashley, 2011. "Time-Varying Returns, Intertemporal Substitution and Cyclical Variation in Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-41, July.
    7. Paul Frijters & Benno Torgler & Christian Gillitzer & Jin Cong Wang, 2016. "Housing Wealth Effects: Cross-sectional Evidence from New Vehicle Registrations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92, pages 30-51, June.
    8. Genovaitė Liobikienė & Justina Mandravickaitė, 2013. "Convergence of new members of the EU: changes in household consumption expenditure structure regarding environmental impact during the prosperous period," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 407-427, April.
    9. Huang, MeiChi & Chiang, Hsiu-Hsuan, 2017. "An early alarm system for housing bubbles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 34-49.
    10. Valadkhani, Abbas & Costello, Greg & Ratti, Ronald, 2016. "House price cycles in Australia’s four largest capital cities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 11-22.
    11. David M. Williams, 2010. "Consumption, wealth and credit liberalisation in Australia," Economics Series Working Papers 492, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Callan Windsor & Jarkko Jääskelä & Richard Finlay, 2013. "Home Prices and Household Spending," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    14. Lance A. Fisher & Geoffrey Kingston, 2017. "Improved Forecasts of Tax Revenue via the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(1), pages 21-31, March.
    15. Ersi Athanassiou & Ekaterini Tsouma, 2017. "Financial and Housing Wealth Effects on Private Consumption: The Case of Greece," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 15(1), pages 63-86.

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