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Time-Varying Returns, Intertemporal Substitution and Cyclical Variation in Consumption

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  • De Veirman Emmanuel

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

  • Dunstan Ashley

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

This paper studies the importance of intertemporal substitution in consumption for the cyclical co-movement of consumption, net worth and income. We can largely explain the empirical hump-shaped consumption response to a transitory wealth increase by allowing for time-varying returns in an otherwise standard Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) model. At the net worth peak, households bring consumption forward in anticipation of low returns on saving. The PIH model fully explains the empirical response when households initially expect the net worth shock to be permanent, but gradually learn that it is in fact transitory.

Suggested Citation

  • De Veirman Emmanuel & Dunstan Ashley, 2011. "Time-Varying Returns, Intertemporal Substitution and Cyclical Variation in Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-41, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:11:y:2011:i:1:n:23
    DOI: 10.2202/1935-1690.1958
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    2. Emmanuel De Veirman, 2023. "Loan-to-Value Shocks and Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers 763, DNB.
    3. Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 2011. "Submission to the Productivity Commission inquiry on housing affordability," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 74, pages 30-38, September.
    4. Mark J. HOLMES & Xin SHEN, 2015. "On Wealth Volatility, Asymmetries And The Average Propensity To Consume In The United States," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(1), pages 69-78.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Permanent Income Hypothesis; time-varying returns; intertemporal substitution effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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