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Proprietary Income, Entrepreneurial Risk, and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns

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  • Hoffmann, Mathias

Abstract

Proprietors are an important group of stockholders and non-diversifiable entrepreneurial risk could therefore help explain time-varying risk premia on the aggregate stock market. This paper suggests an entrepreneurial distress factor that is highly correlated with the aggregate consumption-wealth ratio and that has considerable forecasting power for U.S. stock returns. I call this factor the cpy -residual because it can be be represented as a cointegrating relationship between consumption (c) and income from proprietary (p) and non-proprietary (y) wealth. My interpretation of cpy as an entrepreneurial risk factor is based on a number of empirical observations: first, cpy mainly reflects cyclical fluctuations in proprietary income and secondly it is highly correlated with cross-sectional measures of idiosyncratic entrepreneurial risk. Furthermore, and in line with the theoretical mechanism, its predictive power has started to decline since the beginning of the 1980s as stock market participation has widened with the advent of tax-deferable employer-sponsored pension plans and as proprietary income risk has become more easily diversifiable in the wake of state level bank deregulation.

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  • Hoffmann, Mathias, 2006. "Proprietary Income, Entrepreneurial Risk, and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," Technical Reports 2006,14, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb475:200614
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    Cited by:

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    3. Nitschka, Thomas, 2010. "Cashflow news, the value premium and an asset pricing view on European stock market integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1406-1423, November.
    4. Koch, Cathérine Tahmee, 2014. "Risky adjustments or adjustments to risks: Decomposing bank leverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 242-254.
    5. Mathias Hoffmann & Toshihiro Okubo, 2021. "Comparative advantage and pathways to financial development: evidence from Japan’s silk-reeling industry," ECON - Working Papers 387, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    6. Auer Benjamin R., 2012. "Lassen sich CAPM, HCAPM und CCAPM durch konsumbasierte zeitvariable Parameterspezifikation rehabilitieren? / Can Time-varying Parameter Specification Based on Consumption Variables Rehabilitate CAPM, ," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(5), pages 518-544, October.
    7. Thomas Nitschka, 2010. "Idiosyncratic consumption risk and predictability of the carry trade premium: Euro-Area evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 24(1), pages 49-65, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-insurable background risk; entrepreneurial income; equity risk premium; long-horizon predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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