IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/japmet/v32y2017i2p422-439.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transitions at Different Moments in Time: A Spatial Probit Approach

Author

Listed:
  • J. Paul Elhorst
  • Pim Heijnen
  • Anna Samarina
  • Jan P. A. M. Jacobs

Abstract

This paper adopts a spatial probit approach to explain interaction effects among cross‐sectional units when the dependent variable takes the form of a binary response variable and transitions from state 0 to 1 occur at different moments in time. The model has two spatially lagged variables: one for units that are still in state 0 and one for units that had already transferred to state 1. The parameters are estimated on observations for those units that are still in state 0 at the start of the different time periods, whereas observations on units after they transferred to state 1 are discarded, just as in the literature on duration modeling. Furthermore, neighboring units that had not yet transferred may have a different impact from units that had already transferred. We illustrate our approach with an empirical study of the adoption of inflation targeting for a sample of 58 countries over the period 1985–2008. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Paul Elhorst & Pim Heijnen & Anna Samarina & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2017. "Transitions at Different Moments in Time: A Spatial Probit Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 422-439, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:32:y:2017:i:2:p:422-439
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2505
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jae.2505?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Samarina & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Right On Target: Exploring The Factors Leading To Inflation Targeting Adoption," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 372-389, April.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Denis Bolduc & Bernard Fortin & Stephen Gordon, 1997. "Multinomial Probit Estimation of Spatially Interdependent Choices: An Empirical Comparison of Two New Techniques," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 20(1-2), pages 77-101, April.
    4. Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "Public debt around the world: a new data set of central government debt," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 19-24, January.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    6. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1999. "The Quality of Government," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 222-279, April.
    7. Liesenfeld, Roman & Richard, Jean-François & Vogler, Jan, 2013. "Analysis of discrete dependent variable models with spatial correlation," Economics Working Papers 2013-01, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    8. Anna Samarina & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2014. "Factors leading to inflation targeting - the impact of adoption," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 918-923, September.
    9. Cukierman, Alex & Miller, Geoffrey P. & Neyapti, Bilin, 2002. "Central bank reform, liberalization and inflation in transition economies--an international perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 237-264, March.
    10. Wang, Honglin & Iglesias, Emma M. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2013. "Partial maximum likelihood estimation of spatial probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 77-89.
    11. Xiaokun Wang & Kara M. Kockelman, 2009. "Baysian Inference For Ordered Response Data With A Dynamic Spatial‐Ordered Probit Model," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 877-913, December.
    12. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1993. "Smooth unbiased multivariate probability simulators for maximum likelihood estimation of limited dependent variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 347-368, August.
    13. Simmons, Beth A. & Elkins, Zachary, 2004. "The Globalization of Liberalization: Policy Diffusion in the International Political Economy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 171-189, February.
    14. Jean-Francois Richard, 2007. "Efficient High-Dimensional Importance Sampling," Working Paper 321, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jan 2007.
    15. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
    16. Kurt J. Beron & Wim P. M. Vijverberg, 2004. "Probit in a Spatial Context: A Monte Carlo Analysis," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Luc Anselin & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Sergio J. Rey (ed.), Advances in Spatial Econometrics, chapter 8, pages 169-195, Springer.
    17. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace & Nina Lam & Richard Campanella & Xingjian Liu, 2011. "New Orleans business recovery in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(4), pages 1007-1027, October.
    18. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    19. Mukherjee, Bumba & Singer, David Andrew, 2008. "Monetary Institutions, Partisanship, and Inflation Targeting," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 323-358, April.
    20. Keane, Michael, 1993. "Simulation estimation for panel data models with limited dependent variables," MPRA Paper 53029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Pinkse, Joris & Slade, Margaret E., 1998. "Contracting in space: An application of spatial statistics to discrete-choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 125-154, July.
    22. Joris Pinkse & Margaret Slade & Lihong Shen, 2006. "Dynamic Spatial Discrete Choice Using One-step GMM: An Application to Mine Operating Decisions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 53-99.
    23. Marco Arnone & Bernard J Laurens & Jean-François Segalotto & Martin Sommer, 2009. "Central Bank Autonomy: Lessons from Global Trends," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 263-296, June.
    24. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Smirnov, Oleg A., 2010. "Modeling spatial discrete choice," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 292-298, September.
    26. Richard, Jean-Francois & Zhang, Wei, 2007. "Efficient high-dimensional importance sampling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1385-1411, December.
    27. Klier, Thomas & McMillen, Daniel P, 2008. "Clustering of Auto Supplier Plants in the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 460-471.
    28. Alfonso Flores‐Lagunes & Kurt Erik Schnier, 2012. "Estimation of sample selection models with spatial dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 173-204, March.
    29. Mark M. Fleming, 2004. "Techniques for Estimating Spatially Dependent Discrete Choice Models," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Luc Anselin & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Sergio J. Rey (ed.), Advances in Spatial Econometrics, chapter 7, pages 145-168, Springer.
    30. Lawrence H. White, 2003. "Currency Competition and Consumer-Driven Unification," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 23(1), pages 139-145, Spring/Su.
    31. Joris Pinkse & Margaret Slade, 2007. "Semi-structural models of advertising competition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 1227-1246.
    32. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sener, Ipek N. & Eluru, Naveen, 2010. "A flexible spatially dependent discrete choice model: Formulation and application to teenagers' weekday recreational activity participation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(8-9), pages 903-921, September.
    33. Lee, Lung-fei & Yu, Jihai, 2010. "Some recent developments in spatial panel data models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 255-271, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bhat, Chandra R. & Astroza, Sebastian & Hamdi, Amin S., 2017. "A spatial generalized ordered-response model with skew normal kernel error terms with an application to bicycling frequency," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 126-148.
    2. Raul Caruso & Nicola Pontarollo & Roberto Ricciuti, 2020. "Regional diffusion of military regimes in sub‐Saharan Africa," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(1), pages 225-244, February.
    3. Wei Cheng, 2022. "Consistent EM algorithm for a spatial autoregressive probit model," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, December.
    4. Marbuah, George & Gren, Ing-Marie & Mckie, Brendan G. & Buisson, Laëtitia, 2021. "Economic activity and distribution of an invasive species: Evidence from night-time lights satellite imagery data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    5. Kei Kabaya, 2022. "Examining spatially heterogeneous preferences for coastal ecosystem restoration with Bayesian spatial probit approaches," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 99-112, April.
    6. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter H. Egger & Michaela Kesina, 2018. "Generalized spatial autocorrelation in a panel-probit model with an application to exporting in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 193-211, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heijnen, P. & Samarina, A.. & Jacobs, J.P.A.M. & Elhorst, J.P., 2013. "State transfers at different moments in time," Research Report 13006-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    2. repec:dgr:rugsom:13006-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter H. Egger & Michaela Kesina, 2018. "Generalized spatial autocorrelation in a panel-probit model with an application to exporting in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 193-211, August.
    4. Anping Chen & Marlon Boarnet & Mark Partridge & Raffaella Calabrese & Johan A. Elkink, 2014. "Estimators Of Binary Spatial Autoregressive Models: A Monte Carlo Study," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 664-687, September.
    5. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter H. Egger & Michaela Kesina, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of multivariate panel probits with higher‐order network interdependence and an application to firms' global market participation in Guangdong," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 1356-1378, November.
    6. Anna Samarina & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Right On Target: Exploring The Factors Leading To Inflation Targeting Adoption," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 372-389, April.
    7. Hanna Samaryna & Jakob de Haan, 2011. "Right on Target: Exploring the Determinants of Inflation Targeting Adoption," DNB Working Papers 321, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter H. & Kesina, Michaela, 2017. "Determinants of firm-level domestic sales and exports with spillovers: Evidence from China," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 184-201.
    9. Anna Gloria Billé, 2013. "Computational Issues in the Estimation of the Spatial Probit Model: A Comparison of Various Estimators," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 43(2,3), pages 131-154, Winter.
    10. Haoying Wang & Guohui Wu, 2022. "Modeling discrete choices with large fine-scale spatial data: opportunities and challenges," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 325-351, July.
    11. repec:asg:wpaper:1048 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bhat, Chandra R. & Pinjari, Abdul R. & Dubey, Subodh K. & Hamdi, Amin S., 2016. "On accommodating spatial interactions in a Generalized Heterogeneous Data Model (GHDM) of mixed types of dependent variables," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 240-263.
    13. Davide Romelli, 2022. "The political economy of reforms in Central Bank design: evidence from a new dataset," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(112), pages 641-688.
    14. Anna Samarina & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2014. "Factors leading to inflation targeting - the impact of adoption," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 918-923, September.
    15. Silveira Santos, Luís & Proença, Isabel, 2019. "The inversion of the spatial lag operator in binary choice models: Fast computation and a closed formula approximation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 74-102.
    16. Lucotte, Yannick, 2010. "The choice of adopting inflation targeting in emerging economies: Do domestic institutions matter?," MPRA Paper 27118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Dimakou, Ourania, 2015. "Bureaucratic corruption and the dynamic interaction between monetary and fiscal policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 57-78.
    18. Jean-François Richard, 2015. "Likelihood Evaluation of High-Dimensional Spatial Latent Gaussian Models with Non-Gaussian Response Variables," Working Paper 5778, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
    19. Bhat, Chandra R. & Astroza, Sebastian & Hamdi, Amin S., 2017. "A spatial generalized ordered-response model with skew normal kernel error terms with an application to bicycling frequency," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 126-148.
    20. Yannick LUCOTTE, 2010. "The Choice of Adopting Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: Do Domestic Institutions Matter?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1561, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    21. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Determinants of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271121, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    22. Anna Gloria Billé & Samantha Leorato, 2017. "Quasi-ML estimation, Marginal Effects and Asymptotics for Spatial Autoregressive Nonlinear Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS44, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:32:y:2017:i:2:p:422-439. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.