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Continuous model averaging for benchmark dose analysis: Averaging over distributional forms

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  • Matthew W. Wheeler
  • Jose Cortiñas Abrahantes
  • Marc Aerts
  • Jeffery S. Gift
  • Jerry Allen Davis

Abstract

When estimating a benchmark dose (BMD) from chemical toxicity experiments, model averaging is recommended by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, World Health Organization and European Food Safety Authority. Though numerous studies exist for model average BMD estimation using dichotomous responses, fewer studies investigate it for BMD estimation using continuous response. In this setting, model averaging a BMD poses additional problems as the assumed distribution is essential to many BMD definitions, and distributional uncertainty is underestimated when one error distribution is chosen a priori. As model averaging combines full models, there is no reason one cannot include multiple error distributions. Consequently, we define a continuous model averaging approach over distributional models and show that it is superior to single distribution model averaging. To show the superiority of the approach, we apply the method to simulated and experimental response data.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew W. Wheeler & Jose Cortiñas Abrahantes & Marc Aerts & Jeffery S. Gift & Jerry Allen Davis, 2022. "Continuous model averaging for benchmark dose analysis: Averaging over distributional forms," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:33:y:2022:i:5:n:e2728
    DOI: 10.1002/env.2728
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenny S. Crump, 1995. "Calculation of Benchmark Doses from Continuous Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 79-89, February.
    2. Kan Shao & Jeffrey S. Gift, 2014. "Model Uncertainty and Bayesian Model Averaged Benchmark Dose Estimation for Continuous Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 101-120, January.
    3. Claeskens,Gerda & Hjort,Nils Lid, 2008. "Model Selection and Model Averaging," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521852258, September.
    4. Lelys Bravo Guenni & Susan J. Simmons & R. Webster West & Walter W. Piegorsch & Edsel A. Peña & Lingling An & Wensong Wu & Alissa A. Wickens & Hui Xiong & Wenhai Chen, 2012. "The impact of model uncertainty on benchmark dose estimation," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(8), pages 706-716, December.
    5. Marc Aerts & Matthew W. Wheeler & José Cortiñas Abrahantes, 2020. "An extended and unified modeling framework for benchmark dose estimation for both continuous and binary data," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), November.
    6. Matthew W. Wheeler & Kan Shao & A. John Bailer, 2015. "Quantile benchmark dose estimation for continuous endpoints," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 363-372, August.
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