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All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy

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  • Alice Bows-Larkin

Abstract

All sectors face decarbonization for a 2 °C temperature increase to be avoided. Nevertheless, meaningful policy measures that address rising CO 2 from international aviation and shipping remain woefully inadequate. Treated with a similar approach within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), they are often debated as if facing comparable challenges, and even influence each others' mitigation policies. Yet their strengths and weaknesses have important distinctions. This article sheds light on these differences so that they can be built upon to improve the quality of debate and ensuing policy development. The article quantifies '2 °C' pathways for these sectors, highlighting the need for mitigation measures to be urgently accelerated. It reviews recent developments, drawing attention to one example where a change in aviation mitigation policy had a direct impact on measures to cut CO 2 from shipping. Finally, the article contrasts opportunities and barriers towards mitigation. The article concludes that there is a portfolio of opportunities for short- to medium-term decarbonization for shipping, but its complexity is its greatest barrier to change. In contrast, the more simply structured aviation sector is pinning too much hope on emissions trading to deliver CO 2 cuts in line with 2 °C. Instead, the solution remains controversial and unpopular - avoiding 2 °C requires demand management. Policy relevance The governance arrangements around the CO 2 produced by international aviation and shipping are different from other sectors because their emissions are released in international airspace and waters. Instead, through the Kyoto Protocol, the International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) were charged with developing policies towards mitigating their emissions. Slow progress to date, coupled with strong connections with rapidly growing economies, has led to the CO 2 from international transport growing at a higher rate than the average rate from all other sectors. This article considers this rapid growth, and the potential for future CO 2 growth in the context of avoiding a 2 °C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. It explores similarities and differences between these two sectors, highlighting that a reliance on global market-based measures to deliver required CO 2 cuts will likely leave both at odds with the overarching climate goal.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice Bows-Larkin, 2015. "All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 681-702, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:15:y:2015:i:6:p:681-702
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.965125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Crist, 2009. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Potential from International Shipping," OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers 2009/11, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nelson, Ewan & Warren, Peter, 2020. "UK transport decoupling: On track for clean growth in transport?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 39-51.
    2. Brewer, Thomas L., 2019. "Black carbon emissions and regulatory policies in transportation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1047-1055.
    3. Morten Simonsen & Hans Jakob Walnum & Stefan Gössling, 2018. "Model for Estimation of Fuel Consumption of Cruise Ships," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-29, April.
    4. Anastasia Christodoulou & Kevin Cullinane, 2024. "The prospects for, and implications of, emissions trading in shipping," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 26(1), pages 168-184, March.
    5. Matthew P. Johnson & Theresa S. Rötzel & Brigitte Frank, 2023. "Beyond conventional corporate responses to climate change towards deep decarbonization: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 921-954, June.
    6. Becken, Susanne & Mackey, Brendan, 2017. "What role for offsetting aviation greenhouse gas emissions in a deep-cut carbon world?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 71-83.
    7. Marie Lisa Kapeller & Manfred Füllsack & Georg Jäger, 2019. "Holiday Travel Behaviour and Correlated CO 2 Emissions—Modelling Trend and Future Scenarios for Austrian Tourists," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-25, November.
    8. Ignė Stalmokaitė & Johanna Yliskylä-Peuralahti, 2019. "Sustainability Transitions in Baltic Sea Shipping: Exploring the Responses of Firms to Regulatory Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Barry McMullin & Paul Price & Michael B. Jones & Alwynne H. McGeever, 2020. "Assessing negative carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of a national “fair share” of the remaining global carbon budget," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 579-602, April.
    10. Tomas Gil-Lopez & Amparo Verdu-Vazquez, 2021. "Environmental Analysis of the Use of Liquefied Natural Gas in Maritime Transport within the Port Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-14, October.
    11. Natalia Wagner, 2023. "Inventive Activity for Climate Change Mitigation: An Insight into the Maritime Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-23, November.
    12. Sturla-Zerene, Gino & Figueroa B, Eugenio & Sturla, Massimiliano, 2020. "Reducing GHG global emissions from copper refining and sea shipping of Chile's mining exports: A world win-win policy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Graeme Heyes & Cathy Urquhart & Paul Hooper & Callum Thomas, 2023. "Comprehensive Strategic Analysis for Sustainability: An Aviation Industry Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, May.
    14. Patrizia Serra & Gianfranco Fancello, 2020. "Towards the IMO’s GHG Goals: A Critical Overview of the Perspectives and Challenges of the Main Options for Decarbonizing International Shipping," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-32, April.
    15. Simonsen, Morten & Gössling, Stefan & Walnum, Hans Jakob, 2019. "Cruise ship emissions in Norwegian waters: A geographical analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 87-97.
    16. Napp, T.A. & Few, S. & Sood, A. & Bernie, D. & Hawkes, A. & Gambhir, A., 2019. "The role of advanced demand-sector technologies and energy demand reduction in achieving ambitious carbon budgets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 351-367.
    17. Styliani Livaniou & Georgios Chatzistelios & Dimitrios V. Lyridis & Evangelos Bellos, 2022. "LNG vs. MDO in Marine Fuel Emissions Tracking," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-12, March.
    18. Arthit Champeecharoensuk & Shobhakar Dhakal & Nuwong Chollacoop, 2023. "Climate Change Mitigation in Thailand’s Domestic Aviation: Mitigation Options Analysis towards 2050," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-20, October.
    19. Becken, Susanne & Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2020. "Are the current expectations for growing air travel demand realistic?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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