IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i22p6418-d287149.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Holiday Travel Behaviour and Correlated CO 2 Emissions—Modelling Trend and Future Scenarios for Austrian Tourists

Author

Listed:
  • Marie Lisa Kapeller

    (Institute of Systems Sciences, Innovation and Sustainability Research, University of Graz, 8010 Graz, Austria)

  • Manfred Füllsack

    (Institute of Systems Sciences, Innovation and Sustainability Research, University of Graz, 8010 Graz, Austria)

  • Georg Jäger

    (Institute of Systems Sciences, Innovation and Sustainability Research, University of Graz, 8010 Graz, Austria)

Abstract

The footprint of tourism through travel is contributing significantly to the accumulation of human-made CO 2 . Due to different options in transportation, resulting emissions depend strongly on the choices of individuals on how to travel. In Austria, land travel is the main mode of transportation, though air travel has shown a significant increase during the last decades. We present a model to estimate past and future emission trends of land and air travel for domestic (inbound) and international (outbound) travel destinations. For this, we use a combination of two software models, a social-economic individual-based model to simulate the decision processes of holiday travel and an emission calculation model to estimate single travel-based CO 2 emissions. Our model is supported by data (reference year 2016) on tourism demand, holiday destinations, household wealth and emissions of different transportation modes. Our model evaluation successfully reproduced historical data of travel demand in the period 2003–2019 and explores several future trends of (a) business-as-usual, (b) green transition and (c) aviation preference increase. We calculated a current CO 2 footprint of 5.8 million tonnes in 2019, which could increase to 7.3 million tonnes by 2030 if the current trend continues. A necessary decrease of transportation emissions is only possible when reducing air travel. In case of a green transition towards more land travel, total emissions could be kept constant compared to current emission levels. However, an overall reduction of holiday travel related CO 2 below 3.5 million tonnes has not been observed even under the best circumstances due to projected increases in the total population and increases in wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Lisa Kapeller & Manfred Füllsack & Georg Jäger, 2019. "Holiday Travel Behaviour and Correlated CO 2 Emissions—Modelling Trend and Future Scenarios for Austrian Tourists," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-25, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:22:p:6418-:d:287149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/22/6418/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/22/6418/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Wit, Jaap G. & Zuidberg, Joost, 2012. "The growth limits of the low cost carrier model," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 17-23.
    2. Alexander Krenek & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2017. "Sustainability-oriented tax-based own resources for the European Union: a European carbon-based flight ticket tax," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 665-686, November.
    3. Pearce, David W, 1991. "The Role of Carbon Taxes in Adjusting to Global Warming," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 938-948, July.
    4. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Alina Kulczyk-Dynowska & Beata Bal-Domańska, 2019. "The National Parks in the Context of Tourist Function Development in Territorially Linked Municipalities in Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, April.
    6. Anger, Annela, 2010. "Including aviation in the European emissions trading scheme: Impacts on the industry, CO2 emissions and macroeconomic activity in the EU," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 100-105.
    7. Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2009. "New Europe, new low-cost air services," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/95851, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Pirmin Fessler & Peter Lindner & Martin Schürz, 2019. "Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey 2017 for Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/18, pages 36-66.
    9. Dobruszkes, Frédéric, 2009. "New Europe, new low-cost air services," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 423-432.
    10. Agostini, Paola & Botteon, Michele & Carraro, Carlo, 1992. "A carbon tax to reduce CO2 emissions in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 279-290, October.
    11. James M. Poterba, 1991. "Tax Policy to Combat Global Warming: On Designing a Carbon Tax," NBER Working Papers 3649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Alice Bows-Larkin, 2015. "All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 681-702, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luan Santos & Karl Steininger & Marcelle Candido Cordeiro & Johanna Vogel, 2022. "Current Status and Future Perspectives of Carbon Pricing Research in Austria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-28, August.
    2. Marie Lisa Kapeller & Georg Jäger, 2020. "Threat and Anxiety in the Climate Debate—An Agent-Based Model to Investigate Climate Scepticism and Pro-Environmental Behaviour," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Alan Kabanshi, 2020. "Are We Overestimating the Benefits of Emission Reduction Measures?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-9, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dobruszkes, Frédéric, 2013. "The geography of European low-cost airline networks: a contemporary analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 75-88.
    2. Floros, Nikolaos & Vlachou, Andriana, 2005. "Energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions in Greek manufacturing: Assessing the impact of a carbon tax," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 387-413, May.
    3. Pottier, Antonin & Combet, Emmanuel & Cayla, Jean-Michel & de Lauretis, Simona & Nadaud, Franck, 2021. "Who emits CO2 ? Landscape of ecological inequalities in France from a critical perspective," FEEM Working Papers 311053, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Dudás, Gábor & Boros, Lajos & Pál, Viktor & Pernyész, Péter, 2016. "Analysis of the lowest airfares considering the different business models of airlines, the case of Budapest," MPRA Paper 74502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jankiewicz, Jacek & Huderek-Glapska, Sonia, 2016. "The air transport market in Central and Eastern Europe after a decade of liberalisation – Different paths of growth," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 45-56.
    6. Anthony B. Atkinson, 2004. "De nouvelles sources pour le financement du développement – Économie publique mondiale. Une approche en termes de frontière de production," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 12(3), pages 5-27.
    7. Anna Mazurek-Kusiak & Joanna Hawlena & Agata Kobylka, 2019. "Model of Polish Market of Passenger Air Services in the Conditions of EU Standards," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 417-427.
    8. Lisandro Abrego & Carlo Perroni, 2002. "Investment subsidies and Time-Consistent Environmental Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(4), pages 617-635, October.
    9. Anwar Shah & Bjorn Larsen, 2014. "Carbon taxes, the greenhouse effect, and developing countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 353-402, May.
    10. Fernández, Xosé Luis & Coto-Millán, Pablo & Díaz-Medina, Benito, 2018. "The impact of tourism on airport efficiency: The Spanish case," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 52-58.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13361 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Valdes, Victor, 2015. "Determinants of air travel demand in Middle Income Countries," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-84.
    13. Boonekamp, Thijs & Zuidberg, Joost & Burghouwt, Guillaume, 2018. "Determinants of air travel demand: The role of low-cost carriers, ethnic links and aviation-dependent employment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 18-28.
    14. Sjak Smulders & Herman R. J. Vollebergh, 2001. "Green Taxes and Administrative Costs: The Case of Carbon Taxation," NBER Chapters, in: Behavioral and Distributional Effects of Environmental Policy, pages 91-130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Van Hamme, Gilles, 2011. "The impact of the current economic crisis on the geography of air traffic volumes: an empirical analysis," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1387-1398.
    16. Cathal O'Donoghue, 1997. "Carbon Dioxide, Energy Taxes and Household Income," Papers WP090, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. Burrell, Kathy, 2011. "Going steerage on Ryanair: cultures of migrant air travel between Poland and the UK," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 1023-1030.
    18. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Lennert, Moritz & Van Hamme, Gilles, 2011. "An analysis of the determinants of air traffic volume for European metropolitan areas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 755-762.
    19. Cathal O'Donoghue, 1997. "Carbon Dioxide, Energy Taxation and Industry: An Input-Output Analysis," Papers WP082, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    20. Kuljanin, Jovana & Paskota, Mira & Kalić, Milica, 2018. "Methodological framework for the investigation on the rapidly growing air travel market – An application of multivariate statistical analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 86-91.
    21. Wu, Chuntao & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu & Funck, Carolin, 2012. "The role of charter flights in Sino-Japanese tourism," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 21-27.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:22:p:6418-:d:287149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.