IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rjapxx/v20y2015i2p243-270.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A decomposition approach to labour market forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • James Andrew Giesecke
  • Nhi Hoang Tran
  • Gerald Anthony Meagher
  • Felicity Pang

Abstract

Recognising human capital's central role in economic development, many countries in the Asia Pacific region have allocated significant resources to the development of their education sectors. However, despite growing policy concern over acute mismatches between qualification supply and qualification demand, few of these countries have national systems for generating and disseminating employment forecasts. In this paper, we outline a forecasting method that is parsimonious in its data requirements, making it suitable for the often data-constrained research environments of the Asia Pacific's developing economies. We apply the method to Vietnam, a rapidly growing transition economy. The method generates detailed labour market projections, while also making transparent the underlying macroeconomic, structural and policy shocks that determine the forecasts. A decomposition of forecast outcomes in terms of the individual contributions of these shocks facilitates transparency in forecasting, by clearly distinguishing and ranking factors responsible for generating each forecast outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • James Andrew Giesecke & Nhi Hoang Tran & Gerald Anthony Meagher & Felicity Pang, 2015. "A decomposition approach to labour market forecasting," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 243-270, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:20:y:2015:i:2:p:243-270
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2014.964964
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13547860.2014.964964
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13547860.2014.964964?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Report 2014 [Informe sobre el desarrollo mundial 2014, Riesgo y oportunidad : la administración del riesgo como instrumento de desarrollo - Panorama general]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 16092.
    2. Peter B. Dixon & Martin Johnson & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2008. "Reducing Illegal Migrants in the U.S.: A Dynamic CGE Analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-183, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. G.A. Meagher & P.D. Adams & J.M. Horridge, 2000. "Applied General Equilibrium Modelling and Labour Market Forecasting," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-76, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marc Jim M. Mariano & James A. Giesecke, 2016. "Forecasting development outcomes under alternative surplus labour assumptions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 4019-4032, September.
    2. Boratyński, Jakub, 2021. "Decomposing structural decomposition: The role of changes in individual industry shares," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Glyn Wittwer & Janine Dixon, 2015. "The Labour Module in a dynamic, regional CGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-257, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    4. Janine Dixon, 2016. "Workforce Adaptation to the Cessation of Motor Vehicle Manufacturing in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(4), pages 301-315, December.
    5. Janine Dixon, 2017. "Victoria University Employment Forecasts: 2017 edition," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-277, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Dixon, Janine, 2015. "A new generation of scientists? The impact of STEM-qualified workers on the Australian economy," Conference papers 332626, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tobias Maier & Anke M�nnig & Gerd Zika, 2015. "Labour Demand In Germany By Industrial Sector, Occupational Field And Qualification Until 2025 - Model Calculations Using The Iab/Inforge Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 19-42, March.
    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Ashish Kumar Sedai, Rabindra Nepal, and Tooraj Jamasb, 2022. "Electrification and Socio-Economic Empowerment of Women in India," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Molina Millán, Teresa, 2015. "Regional Migration, Insurance and Economic Shocks: Evidence from Nicaragua," IZA Discussion Papers 9494, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Andrew Kerr & Bruce McDougall, 2020. "What is a firm census in a developing country? An answer from Ghana," SALDRU Working Papers 262, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    6. Farazi, Subika, 2014. "Informal firms and financial inclusion : status and determinants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6778, The World Bank.
    7. Ayushi Raichoudhury, 2020. "Major Determinants of Financial Inclusion: State-Level Evidences from India," Vision, , vol. 24(2), pages 151-159, June.
    8. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    9. Marc Gilbert Joseph Buchholzer, 2022. "Review of International Comparative Management Volume 23, Issue 1, March 2022 101 Value-ADDED Automation, a Solution for the Future of Work in Automotive Manufacturing in Romania," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 23(1), pages 101-111, March.
    10. Mariya Aleksynska & Friederike Eberlein, 2016. "Coverage of employment protection legislation," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    11. De Sousa, José & Disdier, Anne-Célia & Gaigné, Carl, 2020. "Export decision under risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Ferguson,Neil T. N. & Wolfe,Rebecca J. & Amine,Laila & Ramadi,Eric & Shahin,Lina, 2022. "Building Stability Between Host and Refugee Communities : Evidence from a TVET Program inJordan and Lebanon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10101, The World Bank.
    13. Ren, Haiying & Zhao, Yuhui, 2021. "Technology opportunity discovery based on constructing, evaluating, and searching knowledge networks," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    14. Premand, Patrick & Stoeffler, Quentin, 2022. "Cash transfers, climatic shocks and resilience in the Sahel," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    15. Choutagunta Abishek S., 2019. "Effects of Labour Regulation on Manufacturing Firms in India: A Leximetric Approach," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, April.
    16. David M Bishai & Robert Cohen & Y Natalia Alfonso & Taghreed Adam & Shyama Kuruvilla & Julian Schweitzer, 2016. "Factors Contributing to Maternal and Child Mortality Reductions in 146 Low- and Middle-Income Countries between 1990 and 2010," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
    17. Tóth, István János & Semjén, András & Czibik, Ágnes & Fazekas, Mihály & Németh, Nándor, 2013. "Munkaerő-keresleti előrejelzés vállalati várakozások alapján. Két vállalati adatfelvétel tanulságai [Labour-demand forecasting based on business expectations. Lessons learned from two consecutive e," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 189-223.
    18. Kim, Dai-Won & Yu, Jung-Suk & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2018. "Financial inclusion and economic growth in OIC countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-14.
    19. Joyce J. Chen & Katrina Kosec & Valerie Mueller, 2019. "Temporary and permanent migrant selection: Theory and evidence of ability‐search cost dynamics," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 1477-1519, November.
    20. Kailash Chandra Pradhan & Shrabani Mukherjee, 2018. "Covariate and Idiosyncratic Shocks and Coping Strategies for Poor and Non-poor Rural Households in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 101-127, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:20:y:2015:i:2:p:243-270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rjap .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.