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Labour Demand In Germany By Industrial Sector, Occupational Field And Qualification Until 2025 - Model Calculations Using The Iab/Inforge Model

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  • Tobias Maier
  • Anke M�nnig
  • Gerd Zika

Abstract

By means of a trend extrapolation of microcensus structures (undertaken by the German Federal Statistical Office) for the time period 1996-2007, the projections for labour demand by industrial sector which the IAB already has at its disposal can be transferred to demand by occupational field and subsequently by qualification level until 2025. The findings which have been claimed for some time now are upheld: production-related occupations will lose in significance, while further increases in employment particularly in occupations in the service sector are to be expected. Accordingly, the demand for personnel with a degree from a university or a university of applied sciences will go on rising, while the labour market opportunities for unskilled workers will continue to fall. However, vocational training or its academic counterparts still remain the dominant form of training in Germany. A continuing employment trend is to be expected here.

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  • Tobias Maier & Anke M�nnig & Gerd Zika, 2015. "Labour Demand In Germany By Industrial Sector, Occupational Field And Qualification Until 2025 - Model Calculations Using The Iab/Inforge Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 19-42, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:27:y:2015:i:1:p:19-42
    DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2014.997678
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Thomas Drosdowski & Britta Stöver, 2016. "Tax reforms and their varying impacts on private households in Germany ? Socio-economic modelling opportunities in a macro-econometric input-output model," GWS Discussion Paper Series 16-8, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    2. Tobias Maier & Caroline Neuber-Pohl & Anke Mönnig & Gerd Zika & Michael Kalinowski, 2017. "Modelling reallocation processes in long-term labour market projections [Modellierung von Anpassungsprozessen in langfristigen Arbeitsmarktprojektionen]," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 50(1), pages 67-90, August.
    3. Stephan L. Thomsen & Johannes Trunzer, 2024. "Did the Bologna Process Challenge the German Apprenticeship System? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(4), pages 635-667.
    4. Markus Flaute & Anett Gro mann & Christian Lutz & Anne Nieters, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Prosumer Households in Germany," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 146-155.
    5. Dr. Christian Lutz & Dr. Markus Flaute & Dr. Ulrike Lehr & Dr. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe, 2015. "Economic impacts of renewable power generation technologies and the role of endogenous technological change," GWS Discussion Paper Series 15-9, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    6. Tobias Maier & Anke Mönnig & Gerd Zika, 2021. "Folgen der COVID-19-Krise auf die kurz-, mittel- und langfristigen Beschäftigungs- und Entlohnungschancen nach Berufen [Consequences of the COVID-19 crisis on short-, medium- and long-term employme," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 15(2), pages 107-138, June.

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