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Export Decision under Risk

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  • De Sousa, José
  • Disdier, Anne-Célia
  • Gaigné, Carl

Abstract

Using firm and industry data, we unveil two empirical regularities: (i) Demand uncertainty not only reduces export probabilities but also decreases export quantities and increases export prices; (ii) The most productive exporters are more affected by higher industry-wide expenditure volatility than are the least productive exporters. We rationalize these regularities by developing a new firm-based trade model wherein managers are risk averse. Higher volatility induces the reallocation of export shares from the most to the least productive incumbents. Greater skewness of the demand distribution and/or higher trade costs weaken this effect. Our results hold for a large class of consumer utility functions.

Suggested Citation

  • De Sousa, José & Disdier, Anne-Célia & Gaigné, Carl, 2017. "Export Decision under Risk," Working Papers 265728, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:inrasl:265728
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.265728
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    2. Carl Gaigné & Karine Latouche & Stéphane Turolla, 2020. "Compétitivité internationale du secteur agroalimentaire français : c’est quoi le problème ?," Post-Print hal-03346304, HAL.
    3. Abdul Rashid & M. Kabir Hassan & Hafsa Karamat, 2021. "Firm size and the interlinkages between sales volatility, exports, and financial stability of Pakistani manufacturing firms," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 111-134, March.
    4. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. De Sousa, José & Disdier, Anne-Célia & Gaigné, Carl, 2020. "Export decision under risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Wim Naudé & Martin Cameron, 2021. "Export-Led Growth after COVID-19: The Case of Portugal," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 52, pages 7-53, July.
    7. Jérôme Héricourt & Clément Nedoncelle, 2016. "How Multi-Destination Firms Shape the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Micro Evidence and Aggregate Implications," Working Papers 2016-05, CEPII research center.
    8. Fracasso, Andrea & Secchi, Angelo & Tomasi, Chiara, 2022. "Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 135-152.
    9. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    10. Baley, Isaac & Veldkamp, Laura & Waugh, Michael, 2020. "Can global uncertainty promote international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. William Connell & Emmanuel Dhyne & Hylke Vandenbussche, 2019. "Learning about demand abroad from wholesalers: a B2B analysis," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 643224, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    12. Carbonero, Francesco & Devicienti, Francesco & Manello, Alessandro & Vannoni, Davide, 2021. "Women on board and firm export attitudes: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 159-175.
    13. José C. Fariñas & Ana Martín-Marcos & Francisco J. Velázquez, 2021. "The Geographical Scope of Multinational Firms and Heterogeneity," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 761-788, September.
    14. Antoine Gervais, 2021. "Global sourcing under uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1103-1135, November.
    15. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Qian, Ningyu & Shen, Yinjie (Victor), 2021. "The impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    16. Gervais, Antoine, 2018. "Uncertainty, risk aversion and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-158.
    17. José Fillat & Stefania Garetto, 2021. "On the Origins of the Multinational Premium," Working Papers 21-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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